Actionable insights straight to your inbox

Equities logo

A Market Top Soon and a Long Term Bear

A Complex and Evolving Top This has been a complex, evolving top that has spanned several months in its formation. Tops in the stock market tend to be rounding evolutions; bottoms tend
  • 2 min Read

By Stan Harley

Studying the chart history of any stock, index, or commodity will reveal that each market has a series of cyclical profiles that affect price movement. Cycles are the essential factor in forecasting how long a trend should run and when to expect reversals. Their understanding and exploitation provides an overwhelming edge to the successful trader. Stan Harley’s technical expertise encompasses market cycles – their mathematical derivation, real-time tracking, and exploitation for investment and trading. He will demonstrate that cycles have their root derivation grounded in Fibonacci numerology. Stan will provide attendees with the mathematical tools he uses to calculate – and forecast – cyclical highs and lows and be prepared to buy or sell. Throughout our discussions, Stan will present a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the key cycles in the stock, bond, precious metals, and housing markets. Stan Harley’s career has spanned investment advisory services, defense/aerospace, and military service. A California registered investment adviser since 1991, Stan publishes The Harley Market Letter, which employs advanced technical analysis of the stock market, bonds, precious metals, and other sectors of interest. The Harley Market Letter has been ranked by Timer Digest as Stock Market Timer of the Year and Bond Market Timer of the Year in 1998, 2001, and 2010. Mr. Harley’s work has been featured in Barron's, Investors' Business Daily, The Los Angeles Times, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and other national media publications. Stan is also a frequent guest market analyst on radio, television, and streaming internet audio/video web sites. He can be reached at (805)-484-4258 or e-mail [email protected]. Information can also be found at: http://www.harleymarketletter.com/.
Studying the chart history of any stock, index, or commodity will reveal that each market has a series of cyclical profiles that affect price movement. Cycles are the essential factor in forecasting how long a trend should run and when to expect reversals. Their understanding and exploitation provides an overwhelming edge to the successful trader. Stan Harley’s technical expertise encompasses market cycles – their mathematical derivation, real-time tracking, and exploitation for investment and trading. He will demonstrate that cycles have their root derivation grounded in Fibonacci numerology. Stan will provide attendees with the mathematical tools he uses to calculate – and forecast – cyclical highs and lows and be prepared to buy or sell. Throughout our discussions, Stan will present a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the key cycles in the stock, bond, precious metals, and housing markets. Stan Harley’s career has spanned investment advisory services, defense/aerospace, and military service. A California registered investment adviser since 1991, Stan publishes The Harley Market Letter, which employs advanced technical analysis of the stock market, bonds, precious metals, and other sectors of interest. The Harley Market Letter has been ranked by Timer Digest as Stock Market Timer of the Year and Bond Market Timer of the Year in 1998, 2001, and 2010. Mr. Harley’s work has been featured in Barron's, Investors' Business Daily, The Los Angeles Times, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and other national media publications. Stan is also a frequent guest market analyst on radio, television, and streaming internet audio/video web sites. He can be reached at (805)-484-4258 or e-mail [email protected]. Information can also be found at: http://www.harleymarketletter.com/.

A Complex and Evolving Top

This has been a complex, evolving top that has spanned several months in its formation. Tops in the stock market tend to be rounding evolutions; bottoms tend to be spike-type events. The geometry of the evolving top in this stock market has been on-going since early July. Whether the final high for the Dow and S&P can be labeled as “complete” is yet to be confirmed. I can make the case that the highs are in – today’s wide day range, closing near the highs notwithstanding. Last weekend, I made the case for the possible high occurring in the December 10-12 time frame based on the 98.4 TD count from the July 24, 2014 high and the similarities in the pattern as compared to the 2007 top.

It’s conceivable that the scenario I conjectured may well pan out in the next 1-3 trading days. It’s also conceivable we may see only the NASDAQ Composite push to a new recovery high and the DJIA, DJTA, and S&P 500 fail to push to a new high as well. I recall from 2007 the NAZ’s high occurred 14 trading days after the Dow / S&P.  Perhaps a similar evolution will occur here. Regardless, I think it would be of extraordinarily high risk to maintain any long positions here; quite the contrary, I remain resolute in my view that a major top is unfolding right in here and a few more days’ patience will prove the validity of that.

 

 

 

Each month, Stan Harley publishes The Harley Market Letter, a newsletter that provides advanced technical analysis of stocks, bonds, and precious metals. This is the latest update to the Harley Market Letter for December. Want to learn more from acclaimed market analyst Stan Harley? Visit his site and subscribe to the full Harley Market Letter.

  • More in Investing & Finance

Energy Crack Spreads as Real-Time Indicators of Refinery Performance

Why distillate crack spreads will likely experience more volatility.

Energy Crack Spreads as Real-Time Indicators of Refinery Performance

  • 3 min Read 
Equities short logo
Equities short logo
Equities logo

Sign up For our Newsletter

CHANNELS

ABOUT

© 2022 Equities News | Equities.com, Inc.