The changes in medicine and treating disease over the next few years will be the lynch pin for extending life expectancy. Those who understand Life Science know that our children will all live beyond the 100 year mark, which we consider now as a benchmark for long life. Soon, this number will extend to 125 then 150 as our current benchmark will be a normal event, and working to 65 will no longer be the standard—as the retirement age will be 75 and then 80.
In order for this reality to take place technology will become center stage in drug therapy, patient diagnosis, and finally cures which extend life. These therapies, products, and solutions will manifest themselves in our culture, as they are doing now. I know plenty of stem cell therapy patients who are living longer, and treating diabetes globally will raise lifespan all by itself. But know that the changes that happen through 2020 will be the stepping stones to longer life. The Valeants (VRX) and Martin Shkrellis will be long forgotten as the scourge and most hated men in America. A new age of cure and longer life will proliferate, and logical heroes will emerge.
Some facts exist around organ and bone marrow transplants where 100,000 Americans and 1.5 million Chinese remain on waiting lists - Intensive immune suppression treatments (radiation and chemotherapy) contribute to up to 50% transplant related mortality rates. Organ transplant recipients take anti-rejection medication daily for life, and suffer impaired quality of life and reduced life expectancy.
Blood cell cancers are insufficiently addressed by conventional treatments and over 1 million Americans today have leukemia and lymphoma where 100,000 new cases followed by 50,000 deaths annually in the US alone continue to haunt those in Life Science.
Organ diseases and lack of availability claim millions of lives and 200,000 Americans die from lung disease annually with only 24,000 organ transplants performed annually in the U.S. These numbers are on the cusp of change. Those who study the velocity of change in medicine know that during the Civil War many of the casualties had to do the early phase of doctoring and surgery, and these hard lessons led to great changes in medicine and a longer life. The average age during the Civil War was 35 and today it is 100% higher. I expect it to make another 100% jump and establish rules similar to the rules for Moore's law in semiconductors.
I had the opportunity to meet with a few insightful guys who helped me grasp the upcoming changes and how they fit into the thesis above. They are active in the space now and have invested in Cell Source (CLCS) and have some great ideas. I suggest you take a look at this thin volume stock and reach out to them. They assisted greatly in understanding where we are going and how to get there.
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