Monday, November 3, 2014 9:12 a.m. DAILY BEFORE the OPEN
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Daily:Boiling down fundamental, technical, economic,
monetary, fiscal, psychological, and seasonal data into a quick read.
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Right now – today – the market is in no-man’s land, defying time-tested technical and fundamental yardsticks for valuation.
Guns on the street are cocked ready to fire on the buy-side or sell side, depending on who knows what at this point.
Issues that rocked the market two weeks ago (ISIS, Ebola, Russia/Ukraine, soft economies abroad) are still with us, just not front page news.
A 9.8%, September/October plunge in the S&P 500 has been reversed with the DJIA and Nasdaq Comp. hitting new highs, the S&P 500 to follow suit today.
TODAY:
A move in the stock market as sharp as that which occurred since mid-October is sure to prompt some profit taking, yet with foreign economies struggling, and long-term bonds getting pricey, the U.S. stock market appears to be the only place an investor can get a return on their investment.
That can be a good reason to BUY with blinders, but does that make sense with a bull market that is hitting new highs after a 200% up-move ? Gutsy investors will roll the dice. Cautious investors will have a cash reserve and sit close to the exit.
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Investor’s first read– Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,390
S&P 500: 2,018
Nasdaq Comp.: 4,630
Russell 2000:1173
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BEST SIX MONTHS for OWNING STOCKS (Nov. 1 to May 1)*
This six months period has consistently outperformed the six months between May 1 and November 1, though both have been interrupted by counter moves.
It is important to consider the possibility that the six month period starting Monday will be an exception. This would not only go counter to the Best Six Months pattern, it would contradict the market’s bullish record for rising in pre-presidential election years.
If the Washington scene has been ugly and dysfunctional over the last four years, it stands to get even more so regardless of who comes out ahead next Tuesday. Just keep an open mind. None of these seasonal tendencies is infallible. These seasonal patterns, and others are presented in great detail in the Stock Trader’s Almanac – “must” reading.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EACH of 30 DOW INDUSTRIALS (10/30 close)
By technically analyzing each of the 30 Dow industrials then using the Dow “divisor” to convert the data back into the DJIA, I can get a better read on what is primary support and a secondary support.
As of the 10/8 close: Resistance 17,532; Primary Support: 17,052; and Secondary Support: 16,930.
NOTE: These calculations generally hold for longer periods of time, but need to be changed when the market is hit with excessive volatility.
The resistance and support levels listed daily may differ, since they are shorter term.
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THIS WEEK’s ECONOMIC REPORTS:
For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go towww.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”
MONDAY:
PMI Mfg Ix. (9:45):
Fed’ Evans speaks (9:30)
ISM Mfg. Ix (10:00):
Construction Spend (10:00):
Global Mfg. Ix. (11:00):
TUESDAY:
ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45:)
Factory Orders (10:00):
WEDNESDAY:
MBA Purchase Apps, Refi’s (7:00):
ADP Employment 8:15):
Fed’s Kockerlakota speaks (9:15):
Fed’s Lacker speaks (9:30):
PMI Services Ix.(9:45):
ISM Non-Mfg Ix (10:00):
Fed’s Rosengran speaks (10:00)
THURSDAY:
Jobless Claims (8:30):
Productiviy/Costs (8:30):
FRIDAY:
Employment Situation (8:30):
Consumer Credit (3:00):
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RECENT POSTS:
Oct. 16 DJIA 16,141 Rally Today Off Wednesday Lows Risky
Oct. 17 DJIA 16,117 What If the Fed Doesn’t Delay Taper ?
Oct. 20 DJIA 16,380 Critical Week for Bulls
Oct. 21 DJIA 16,399 Market Attacking Key Resistance
Oct. 22 DJIA 16,614 Just a Rally of End of the Correction ?
Oct. 23 DJIA 16,461 BIG Day for Economic Reports
Oct. 24 DJIA 16,677 DJIA – a Portfolio of Small Cap Stocks ?
Oct. 27 DJIA 16,805 Wednesday: Wall Street: Pass, or Fail
Oct. 28 DJIA 16,817 Bullard Bull !!
Oct. 29 DJIA 17,005 Fed Decision – Major Market Reaction ?
Oct. 30 DJIA 16,974 Interest Rate Angst Next
Oct. 31 DJIA 17,195 Raise Some Cash
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
A Game-On Analysis, LL
“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.
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