Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?



A New Year Brings New Opportunities for Patient Traders

By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM
Tickers Mentioned:

The fourth quarter earnings season has officially started, and traders and investors will be watching closely what the market has in store for the coming year. In this week's interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss areas of the market that could potentially still hold some opportunity despite trading at such elevated levels.

EQ: The New Year has barely gotten underway and we're already in earnings season. The fourth quarter should be interesting to see how the year closed out for many different areas of the market. Are there any in particular that you're watching right now?

Turner: Of course, Alcoa, Inc. (AA) kicks off the earnings season Thursday after the market closes. However, I’m actually watching with interest to see how the retailers finished out the fourth quarter. We can see how that works out in the aggregate by watching the SPDR S&P Retail ETF ($XRT). The XRT was up 38 percent in 2013, and so we know that this past year, consumers held up well.

We also know that the U.S. consumer makes up two-thirds of GDP, so in order for this glorious uptrend to continue in the market—and certainly riding on the back of the improving economic numbers—we need retailers to stay strong.

Now, Costco (COST) just reported that sales rose 5 percent in December, beating expectations of 2.6 percent. I know retailers is a highly diverse industry group, with some suffering like Sears Holdings (SHLD) and JC Penney (JCP) , and some doing well like Macy’s (M) and Costco, but I want to see in the as a whole how retailers and the U.S. consumer are doing since they are a key part of our improving environment. So that will be an indicator to me.

EQ: We're arguably in a different economic environment now that the Fed has given a clear indication on the next step of its tapering. Does this affect your approach to the market for 2014 as compared to 2013?

Turner: With the 10-year bond yielding over 2.90 percent, we’ll have to take the possibility of higher interest rates into consideration. Of course, rising bond yields can negatively affect bond-like equities such as Utilities and REITs, so we will have to adjust our sector evaluations accordingly.

If the Fed, under Janet Yellen, continues to cut back on the bond buying—--then we’ll need to adjust how we think and we’ll have to be even more judicious in the coming year as to which stocks we choose to invest in.

EQ: You said recently that you aren't keen on adding new long positions as of right now. Do you see some softness in the market as of where we currently sit? Do you anticipate a pullback in the near future?

Turner: I’ve been anticipating a pullback for the past three months, and I’ve been wrong for the past three months. I’m going to admit that, but I’m also in good company. I think there’s standing room only in this particular  space.

However,  in the first few days of  January, the market has a spongy texture. We’ve watched oil prices fall rather dramatically since the last two trading days of December to where it currently is, and oil prices have fallen even more from the September highs, which was at $104.67. Right now, WTI crude futures are trading at $91.80.

Brent oil has fallen as well, although not as much. I do realize that we have maybe an oversupply of oil in the U.S., but this dramatic fall seems to indicate more than that.

In addition to  falling oil prices,  we can see China’s weakening posture—by looking at the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) , which has fallen 10 percent off the December high. Right now, it’s falling below the November lows of $35.76. As the second-largest economy in the world, if China continues  to lose momentum,  we may see Basic Materials fall in concert and it may put a hitch in the giddy-up in the U.S. market.

EQ: What sectors or industry groups are you watching right now?

Turner: One cannot help but see that Healthcare and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ($XLV) has really moved dramatically higher, and perhaps it can stay in this uptrend for some time to come. Biotechs are getting a lot of play here, though I don’t recommend many  biotechs to novice traders because they can be very volatile. With that said, you can watch the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ($XBI), . although I would wait for a pullback before I entered.

Almost everything right now needs to pull back. I’m watching the Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ($SEA), which I mentioned last time we spoke. A bunch of small shippers here have done well recently, but this too, needs to consolidate before I’d be interested.

Also, I’m watching the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ($FAN), but that too only on a retracement.  I’m pretty much sitting tight here except for a couple of core positions. I want to wait to see what happens with China and with U.S. interest rates.


DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

Signup for our daily newsletter and get our best articles emailed right to you!

Results for AA
IH News Desk
4 Jul 15 19:00:13
$NEWL Financials Updated Saturday, July 4, 2015 9:11:09 PM $ADP $AA $MDC $ORIG http://t.co/EicPWDYyiA
4 Jul 15 18:48:32
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund Tick http://t.co/zcVwe1gFKE $UUP $KBE $AA $CELG #UUP #stockmarket #tradeideas
4 Jul 15 18:43:05
MTVX APT MotoVox Group, Inc. 52Wk Low http://t.co/7x4TPevV9r $MTVX $AA $DWTI $DRH #MTVX #pennystocks #tradeideas
4 Jul 15 18:42:32
MMM 3M Co. Last Trade http://t.co/vDO8E13GYR $MMM $JNJ $AA $SH #MMM #pennystocks #stocks
Rosner Stocks
4 Jul 15 18:36:34
$AA Short Sales Updated Saturday, July 4, 2015 8:59:24 PM $GOOG $VZ $FCX $UN http://t.co/KMzY50K5co
4 Jul 15 18:36:07
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. News http://t.co/uXlLOtWh7o $DRI $AA $INTC $VNET #DRI #share #invest
4 Jul 15 18:34:04
CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. Ask http://t.co/Zr0OMwHUBN $CSIQ $PFE $AA $IDT #CSIQ #invest #share
4 Jul 15 18:33:09
BIIB Biogen Inc. 52Wk High http://t.co/2UFXsvZbMA $BIIB $FV $AA $HOU.TO #BIIB #investing #finance
4 Jul 15 18:32:05
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. Bid Size http://t.co/k8NNMvoooy $AMAT $AA $HHSE $ASHR #AMAT #investing #pennystocks
4 Jul 15 18:31:33
AA Alcoa, Inc. E.P.S. http://t.co/aQrV7Q70m7 $AA $CYBR $CRDC $WFC #AA #pennystocks #pennystocks
Investors Hangout
4 Jul 15 18:31:32
AA Alcoa, Inc. Filings http://t.co/YMilDebJyX $AA $NFLX $ONE $MHYS #AA #tradeideas #nasdaq
PennyStock Zone
4 Jul 15 17:06:41
http://t.co/T1OENoRe1I <- Fous4x2 review invest in your #trading education! $ABEV $ICPT $AA $AMBA #stocks $FB $TWTR
4 Jul 15 16:50:06
_AZZ AZZ, Inc. Short Sales http://t.co/j9FyOvYyQZ $_AZZ $MNKD $AA $IJR #_AZZ #stocks #invest
4 Jul 15 16:49:03
XIV VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN Stock Message Board http://t.co/0vzfWRWcd3 $XIV $VQT $AA $FXC #XIV #share…
4 Jul 15 16:45:33
RT lookn4wins: HYG iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund Last Trade http://t.co/xiqi2TiELm $HYG $ABG $AA… http://t.co/XG5hVFJGig
4 Jul 15 16:43:03
ONCI On4 Communications, Inc. Shares http://t.co/R3SXiV8HZz $ONCI $VBLT $AA $RGC #ONCI #stockmarket #share
4 Jul 15 16:30:32
AA Alcoa, Inc. Day Low http://t.co/A9ugzyXLwt $AA $RSX $IBKR $CNC #AA #investing #finance
Lucky Jimmy
4 Jul 15 15:49:04
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF Current Price http://t.co/aKZdSzOXXo $VTI $CI $LPNT $AA #VTI #nasdaq #pennystocks
4 Jul 15 15:48:08
SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares Summary http://t.co/lrWwrWQZQy $SOXL $AA $GDX $DG #SOXL #nasdaq #finance
4 Jul 15 15:47:04
TRQ Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. Volume http://t.co/Q5M0QkIDm3 $TRQ $FXA $ADRO $AA #TRQ #stockmarket #invest
4 Jul 15 15:46:03
SLV iShares Silver Trust Ask Size http://t.co/d6MGBeT0D5 $SLV $AA $GLD $VLO #SLV #nasdaq #investing
4 Jul 15 15:40:02
IBB Biotech iShares Last Trade http://t.co/51DsT8MbWl $IBB $UA $AA $NSPH #IBB #stockmarket #stock
4 Jul 15 15:37:33
FBSOX Fidelity Select IT Services Portfolio Dividend http://t.co/hfrcfN4i77 $FBSOX $DHI $L.TO $AA #FBSOX #nasdaq #invest
IH News Desk
4 Jul 15 15:36:20
ESPR Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. E.P.S. http://t.co/lCuKC7yD0U $ESPR $VLTC $AA $FV #ESPR #investing #investing
4 Jul 15 15:36:16
ERI Eldorado Resorts, Inc. Ask Size http://t.co/zH33d0ysFQ $ERI $XLF $HCA $AA #ERI #investing #nasdaq
4 Jul 15 15:34:35
DFS Discover Financial Services Bid Size http://t.co/FhdJvDB4Hc $DFS $PANW $CI $AA #DFS #investing #stock
Stock Forums
4 Jul 15 15:34:05
CDE Coeur D Alene Mines Corp. Day High http://t.co/XS3IQDCQse $CDE $AA $MYEC $XLK #CDE #nasdaq #share
4 Jul 15 15:34:05
BMO.TO Bank of Montreal Day Low http://t.co/xfUs4gGlAt $BMO.TO $IDXX $TWTR $AA #BMO.TO #pennystocks #share
4 Jul 15 15:33:35
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. Exchange http://t.co/8TN90sMjcj $BBBY $NBG $GPRO $AA #BBBY #stockmarket #invest
4 Jul 15 15:33:22
CAM Cameron International Corp. Message Board Posts http://t.co/tGcvpyQfAe $CAM $AA $LPNT $MJMJ #CAM #pennystocks #invest
Investors Hangout
4 Jul 15 15:33:21
ALDR Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc. P/E Ratio http://t.co/gGZwviJxD3 $ALDR $AA $CDE $L.TO #ALDR #nasdaq #invest
4 Jul 15 15:31:36
AA Alcoa, Inc. Prev Close http://t.co/ztdNczYIjb $AA $ARE.TO $FXE $UCO #AA #nasdaq #investing
4 Jul 15 15:31:33
AA Alcoa, Inc. Volume http://t.co/L6LmLrXwaW $AA $VOOG $JGBD $UGLD #AA #stocks #stock
4 Jul 15 15:31:06
AA Alcoa, Inc. Change http://t.co/VnIQyBPlm2 $AA $AC.TO $DFS $ACHC #AA #finance #investing
4 Jul 15 15:31:05
AA Alcoa, Inc. Filings http://t.co/L8JBvJWbFW $AA $GDX $MOMO $MFC.TO #AA #pennystocks #invest
Raj Patel
4 Jul 15 15:25:02
Buying stock should never be based on its too cheap or its too high. See what is happening to $AA #stocks #Investors http://t.co/EHW56DGwuL
Teddi Knight
4 Jul 15 15:24:58
$SPX, $IWM, $AA, covered in the week ahead Investing Strategy Notes for the second week of July http://t.co/hElRquLJDp
FinSentS SP500
4 Jul 15 15:11:30
$AA:US Alcoa Earnings Preview: Stock At Critical Juncture, Fundamentally And Technically #ALCOA INC http://t.co/9CkGP4kXMx #SP500
Lucky Jimmy
4 Jul 15 14:49:33
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. Bid Size http://t.co/sGqOSaGF6B $XOM $XLY $AA $AFJAX #XOM #share #pennystocks
4 Jul 15 14:47:03
UCU.V Ucore Rare Metals, Inc. Ask http://t.co/qJm8ejfoTc $UCU.V $AA $FEYE $AEE #UCU.V #invest #tradeideas
Penny Stocks Blog
4 Jul 15 14:45:38
RT @stock_forums: DBB PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Metals Fund Short Sales http://t.co/KEhyNLfsNF $DBB $SBUX $AA $CVTI #DBB…
Penny Stocks Blog
4 Jul 15 14:45:38
RT @stock_forums: AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. Day Low http://t.co/cRmRpWSnSZ $AMAT $GSH $BABA $AA #AMAT #pennystocks #investing
4 Jul 15 14:40:33
HAL Halliburton Co. Bid http://t.co/c5NalM06Tn $HAL $AA $ADM $FISV #HAL #stocks #stockmarket
Stock Forums
4 Jul 15 14:36:34
DBB PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Metals Fund Short Sales http://t.co/KEhyNLfsNF $DBB $SBUX $AA $CVTI #DBB #pennystocks…
Stock Forums
4 Jul 15 14:33:08
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. Day Low http://t.co/cRmRpWSnSZ $AMAT $GSH $BABA $AA #AMAT #pennystocks #investing
4 Jul 15 14:30:32
AA Alcoa, Inc. % Change http://t.co/A1xXCaHI4a $AA $BIB $DUG $LUV #AA #finance #finance
Fati Lamjarred
4 Jul 15 13:46:03
RT @saad_my_life: @itsfatixa @Saadlamjarred1 Oooooo 😍😍😨😨😍😍 My Heart 💔 Ma $aa Allah ✋✋ Realy We Love You 😘 #SaadLamjarred
Analyst Actions
4 Jul 15 13:43:01
$AA: Analyst action by Morgan Stanley on Alcoa: http://t.co/gQyg9ryq3E http://t.co/ivceOMD3zh
4 Jul 15 13:42:05
HZNP Horizon Pharma plc Stock Forum http://t.co/ZWTHGxdsJy $HZNP $BLUE $EWH $AA #HZNP #invest #stocks
4 Jul 15 13:30:41
AA Alcoa, Inc. Chart http://t.co/hSIWKq1IIg $AA $WMIH $JNUG $CSCO #AA #stocks #stocks
By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM



blog comments powered by Disqus


 Today's Must Reads

Microsegmentation: The Future of Cybersecurity?

How this Playboy Playmate Became a Better Stock Trader Than You

Long Term Rates Are On The Up…What’s Next?

The Modern Web: So Many Ways to Invest in Wireless Mobile Stocks

It's Time for the Rest of the Country to Legalize Weed


Do you expect a 10% correction by the end of 2015? in Equities.com Polls on LockerDome

About us

Equities.com is an advanced financial data portal and social network designed to connect self-directed investors with the world’s most innovative startup and small cap companies. Through our in-depth coverage of small cap markets, comprehensive research and stock valuation reports, state of the art issuer products, and world class events, Equities.com provides the social tools and insight that drive tomorrow’s investment relationships and opportunities.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.

Login or Register