logo
Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?

Register
    

 


A New Year Brings New Opportunities for Patient Traders

By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM
Share:
Tickers Mentioned:

The fourth quarter earnings season has officially started, and traders and investors will be watching closely what the market has in store for the coming year. In this week's interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss areas of the market that could potentially still hold some opportunity despite trading at such elevated levels.

EQ: The New Year has barely gotten underway and we're already in earnings season. The fourth quarter should be interesting to see how the year closed out for many different areas of the market. Are there any in particular that you're watching right now?

Turner: Of course, Alcoa, Inc. (AA) kicks off the earnings season Thursday after the market closes. However, I’m actually watching with interest to see how the retailers finished out the fourth quarter. We can see how that works out in the aggregate by watching the SPDR S&P Retail ETF ($XRT). The XRT was up 38 percent in 2013, and so we know that this past year, consumers held up well.

We also know that the U.S. consumer makes up two-thirds of GDP, so in order for this glorious uptrend to continue in the market—and certainly riding on the back of the improving economic numbers—we need retailers to stay strong.

Now, Costco (COST) just reported that sales rose 5 percent in December, beating expectations of 2.6 percent. I know retailers is a highly diverse industry group, with some suffering like Sears Holdings (SHLD) and JC Penney (JCP) , and some doing well like Macy’s (M) and Costco, but I want to see in the as a whole how retailers and the U.S. consumer are doing since they are a key part of our improving environment. So that will be an indicator to me.

EQ: We're arguably in a different economic environment now that the Fed has given a clear indication on the next step of its tapering. Does this affect your approach to the market for 2014 as compared to 2013?

Turner: With the 10-year bond yielding over 2.90 percent, we’ll have to take the possibility of higher interest rates into consideration. Of course, rising bond yields can negatively affect bond-like equities such as Utilities and REITs, so we will have to adjust our sector evaluations accordingly.

If the Fed, under Janet Yellen, continues to cut back on the bond buying—--then we’ll need to adjust how we think and we’ll have to be even more judicious in the coming year as to which stocks we choose to invest in.

EQ: You said recently that you aren't keen on adding new long positions as of right now. Do you see some softness in the market as of where we currently sit? Do you anticipate a pullback in the near future?

Turner: I’ve been anticipating a pullback for the past three months, and I’ve been wrong for the past three months. I’m going to admit that, but I’m also in good company. I think there’s standing room only in this particular  space.

However,  in the first few days of  January, the market has a spongy texture. We’ve watched oil prices fall rather dramatically since the last two trading days of December to where it currently is, and oil prices have fallen even more from the September highs, which was at $104.67. Right now, WTI crude futures are trading at $91.80.

Brent oil has fallen as well, although not as much. I do realize that we have maybe an oversupply of oil in the U.S., but this dramatic fall seems to indicate more than that.

In addition to  falling oil prices,  we can see China’s weakening posture—by looking at the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) , which has fallen 10 percent off the December high. Right now, it’s falling below the November lows of $35.76. As the second-largest economy in the world, if China continues  to lose momentum,  we may see Basic Materials fall in concert and it may put a hitch in the giddy-up in the U.S. market.

EQ: What sectors or industry groups are you watching right now?

Turner: One cannot help but see that Healthcare and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ($XLV) has really moved dramatically higher, and perhaps it can stay in this uptrend for some time to come. Biotechs are getting a lot of play here, though I don’t recommend many  biotechs to novice traders because they can be very volatile. With that said, you can watch the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ($XBI), . although I would wait for a pullback before I entered.

Almost everything right now needs to pull back. I’m watching the Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ($SEA), which I mentioned last time we spoke. A bunch of small shippers here have done well recently, but this too, needs to consolidate before I’d be interested.

Also, I’m watching the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ($FAN), but that too only on a retracement.  I’m pretty much sitting tight here except for a couple of core positions. I want to wait to see what happens with China and with U.S. interest rates.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer


Liked What You Read? Join Equities.com and Connect With Your Favorite Financial Experts FOR FREE! Members of Equities.com gain access to our leading financial news and content, active social investment community, proprietary research tools including the 2014 Small-Cap Stars, E.V.A. reports and more.

Results for AA
Stock Dawgzz
30 Mar 15 19:36:09
Our Penny Stock Picks On $THCZ & $RCGP Gained A Combined 700% so far! Blog Update: http://t.co/g3eVEaITz6 $AA $BRSS $SHOO
Clayton R.
30 Mar 15 19:11:05
Wondering where to learn stock options? Here's the place http://t.co/gV3ZaHH3uy $F $GE $T $BAC $VZ $C $AA $JPM $KO $PFE #investing
StockenheimerSchmidt
30 Mar 15 19:01:27
$PPCH Gained As Much As 1005% Within 3 Days! Market News: http://t.co/oGWehWIJji $AA $BRSS $SHOO
gordon gekko is god
30 Mar 15 18:41:49
Alcoa curtails more Brazilian smelting capacity http://t.co/3iwuwA2GG5 $AA
BradHolt
30 Mar 15 18:04:01
RT @SconsetCapital: $AA SCHWING!!!
$AAPL
30 Mar 15 18:02:47
Here's a place where you can connect with successful daytraders http://t.co/MObVxZ8X9d $GOOG $PCLN $TWTR $FB $AA… http://t.co/gOyJTWVTjR
Mark Trader
30 Mar 15 18:02:23
http://t.co/U0VrKn1h21 has the most reliable picks in the market. The move fast and never fail. $AA $RDN $RF $AVP $CX $ABX $ECA
LATAM PM
30 Mar 15 16:27:27
#BRAZIL #ALCOA $AA will shut a plant with capacity to produce 74K tonnes of aluminum per year,the third to close in Brazil in the past year.
Breaking News
30 Mar 15 16:22:01
$HPTX $UNH $AA: Asian Futures Jump Amid Global Rally; Crude, Gold Decline: http://t.co/vJAEZwzos4
Mark Trader
30 Mar 15 16:20:17
I banked over 200% in gains during my 14-day trial with http://t.co/L2jCaE1M1d. Their 5 guru traders are amazing. $AVP $ABEV $BMY $AA
UBS TrendRadar CH
30 Mar 15 16:15:42
Langfristiges Signal! $AA: Ein Trendkanal wurde bei 12.87 USD nach oben durchbrochen: http://t.co/dqALseNdOx
Taylor Buck
30 Mar 15 15:52:11
@jimcramer just said $aa closed it's smelting capacity plant in Brooklyn lol. Still think you are great. Bought more $aa today
FinSentS SP500
30 Mar 15 15:20:54
$AA:US Alcoa to take a $10 million to $15 million charge as it curtails more smelting capacity #ALCOA INC http://t.co/n4drKkVOK4 #SP500
Blackaar de BerrY
30 Mar 15 14:51:58
@aizoohmash $aa suni follow
leahanne
30 Mar 15 14:45:38
Volume Alert - AA 12.96 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a high today of 13.01 Closing the day 03/30/15 at 12.96 +0.26 +2.05% http://t.co/sfA2kkdrih
leahanne
30 Mar 15 14:45:15
$AA Volume Alert - AA Stock 12.96 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a high today of 13.01 Closing the day 03/30/15 at 12.96 +0.26 http://t.co/hhpCPRexzp
Nine Stocks
30 Mar 15 14:36:34
MACD(12,26,9) Bull Crossover Stocks (Mar.30): $AA, $DOW, $ESRX, $PFE, $POT, $WU http://t.co/yfVP6V2XyW
Mark Trader
30 Mar 15 14:35:48
I banked over 200% in gains during my 14-day trial with http://t.co/L2jCaE1M1d. Their 5 guru traders are amazing. $AA $KO $BSX $AVNR
InvestLite
30 Mar 15 14:35:47
$AA $UNP $NKTR $ERJ on the watch list for tomorrow.
$AAPL
30 Mar 15 14:03:39
Purported ‘iPad Pro' dummy model dredges up age-old rumor of dual Lightning… http://t.co/8b1ia6AEmR #9to5Mac $AA… http://t.co/gOyJTWVTjR
Breaking News Now
30 Mar 15 14:00:02
$AA: New SEC Filing for AA: Form 425 (No. 0001193125-15-111953): http://t.co/2PgmmiKe0f
Latest SEC Filings
30 Mar 15 13:59:55
NEW SEC Filing for $AA filed a moment ago: http://t.co/ttpAP5779N http://t.co/L0L1sSS53h
Stock Wire
30 Mar 15 13:29:36
Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) a Buy: Stifel Nicolaus $AA http://t.co/Rgzcfxdbp9
Traderific
30 Mar 15 13:26:10
BUY $AA 12.96, BUY $AE 66.98, BUY $AN 64.45, BUY $APA 60.83. More stock tips & details at: http://t.co/OPJ2rrj8Dd
SÔNIA MOSSRI
30 Mar 15 13:21:06
RT @PghBizTimes: Alcoa is cutting more operations, this time in Brazil http://t.co/O6lzftc5pn $AA
PBT
30 Mar 15 13:19:05
Alcoa is cutting more operations, this time in Brazil http://t.co/O6lzftc5pn $AA
Large Void Bot
30 Mar 15 13:00:22
Popular: $GNC, $BLUE, $AXP, $SCCO, $NDRM, $MDLZ, $SNE, $CHH, $QCOM, $BBEP, $AA, $SVXY, $NES
Nest Egg
30 Mar 15 12:50:32
RT @BergenCapital: Could Alcoa move further downstream in a deal to acquire Crown Holdings? $CCK $AA $BLL @OpenOutcrier @WSJheard @metalbul…
Mike Bergen
30 Mar 15 12:45:20
Could Alcoa move further downstream in a deal to acquire Crown Holdings? $CCK $AA $BLL @OpenOutcrier @WSJheard @metalbulletin
Bashaar
30 Mar 15 12:33:16
Still watching $AA Alcoa support is starting to take shape around here , waiting for conformation , 30 min chart . http://t.co/aiutP5AHoM
ProTradersNews
30 Mar 15 12:20:02
$AA: Trend Analysis Report - Alcoa (AA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), National ...: http://t.co/3Hn0GY349B
Hit The Bid Radio
30 Mar 15 12:13:03
$AA look who is trying to have it's bar mitzvah
Song Mun
30 Mar 15 11:53:36
RT @JeffGreenblatt: This is perfect example $aa mixture of 15 min and real time hours, the gap down hits as 618hrs off top hits overnite h…
Stockaholics
30 Mar 15 11:46:48
Our Stock Tips Have Gained Over 230% Within 2 Days! Huge News: http://t.co/FW1zCk5dfw $AA $BRSS $SHOO
Timothy Connolly CFA
30 Mar 15 11:29:30
$AA SCHWING!!!
Jeff Greenblatt
30 Mar 15 11:19:48
This is perfect example $aa mixture of 15 min and real time hours, the gap down hits as 618hrs off top hits overnite http://t.co/namRstnXEX
Oil Gas
30 Mar 15 10:49:58
RT @whey2muscle: Commodities Today: Oil, Precious Metals Lower, Asset Sales And Pay Packages Impacting These... http://t.co/wnzhiH7Gul … $A…
Dominic Chu
30 Mar 15 10:38:49
So yeah...UBS' Mike Ryan just reminded us on @PowerLunch that earnings season just around the corner yet again...Alcoa $AA reports next Wed
stockschamp
30 Mar 15 10:38:06
$71,000 in ONE TRADE!! By Follwing Their Signals More Info Here http://t.co/8WvnrVmkBS .. $AA $BRSS $SHOO
TraderMinute
30 Mar 15 10:19:43
$AA this is not looking strong at all, may get down to $12
#HelpYouGetGAINS
30 Mar 15 10:13:08
Commodities Today: Oil, Precious Metals Lower, Asset Sales And Pay Packages Impacting These... http://t.co/wnzhiH7Gul … $AA $ABX $CVX $GLD
FOREX Insight
30 Mar 15 10:00:28
RT @SeekingAlpha: Commodities Today: Oil, Precious Metals Lower, Asset Sales And Pay Packages Impacting These... http://t.co/a1dERY2dx4 $AA…
Quantpost Basic Mats
30 Mar 15 09:53:57
$AA $ABX $CVX News: "Commodities Today: Oil, Precious Metals Lower, Asset Sales And…" http://t.co/vjchO2Xs5p Quote: https://t.co/kVVonzodBF
Seeking Alpha
30 Mar 15 09:53:56
Commodities Today: Oil, Precious Metals Lower, Asset Sales And Pay Packages Impacting These... http://t.co/a1dERY2dx4 $AA $ABX $CVX $GLD
ProVesting
30 Mar 15 09:52:02
$AA: Alcoa (AA) Stock Rises Today After Cutting Smelting Capacity at ...: http://t.co/dgnVzqpE6O
TheStreet Alerts
30 Mar 15 09:47:05
Alcoa $AA Stock Rises Today After Cutting Smelting Capacity at Sao Luis Plant http://t.co/FeYTlJTI0K
Trader Daily
30 Mar 15 09:46:37
Alcoa $AA Stock Rises Today After Cutting Smelting Capacity at Sao Luis Plant http://t.co/4WOrFAwZUj
Pardi Michael
30 Mar 15 09:23:53
RT @eoindinsmore: $AA Alcoa to shut 443,000tpy of alumina refining capacity in Surinam. First move in the next wave of closures | http://t.…
Stock Wire
30 Mar 15 09:17:39
Interesting January 2017 Stock Options for Alcoa $AA http://t.co/zTSQ20rLFc
Breaking News Now
30 Mar 15 09:05:03
$AA: Interesting January 2017 Stock Options for Alcoa: http://t.co/FqoH9dHWpB
				
				
By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM
Share:

Comments

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

About us

Equities.com is the most advanced interactive online social ecosystem for the financial industry, serving as a resource center and next-generation communication platform that connects self-directed investors with public issuers, market experts, and professional service providers and vendors. Registered members can leverage our exclusive proprietary research tools such as the Small-Cap Stars, which outperformed 90% of all small-cap mutual funds, and robust do-it-yourself E.V.A. research reports. The Equities.com Issuer Dashboard is the ideal tool to communicate and manage investor awareness campaigns to the investment community, as well as to access valuable resources to help your company grow.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.