Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?


A New Year Brings New Opportunities for Patient Traders

By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM
Tickers Mentioned:

The fourth quarter earnings season has officially started, and traders and investors will be watching closely what the market has in store for the coming year. In this week's interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss areas of the market that could potentially still hold some opportunity despite trading at such elevated levels.

EQ: The New Year has barely gotten underway and we're already in earnings season. The fourth quarter should be interesting to see how the year closed out for many different areas of the market. Are there any in particular that you're watching right now?

Turner: Of course, Alcoa, Inc. (AA) kicks off the earnings season Thursday after the market closes. However, I’m actually watching with interest to see how the retailers finished out the fourth quarter. We can see how that works out in the aggregate by watching the SPDR S&P Retail ETF ($XRT). The XRT was up 38 percent in 2013, and so we know that this past year, consumers held up well.

We also know that the U.S. consumer makes up two-thirds of GDP, so in order for this glorious uptrend to continue in the market—and certainly riding on the back of the improving economic numbers—we need retailers to stay strong.

Now, Costco (COST) just reported that sales rose 5 percent in December, beating expectations of 2.6 percent. I know retailers is a highly diverse industry group, with some suffering like Sears Holdings (SHLD) and JC Penney (JCP) , and some doing well like Macy’s (M) and Costco, but I want to see in the as a whole how retailers and the U.S. consumer are doing since they are a key part of our improving environment. So that will be an indicator to me.

EQ: We're arguably in a different economic environment now that the Fed has given a clear indication on the next step of its tapering. Does this affect your approach to the market for 2014 as compared to 2013?

Turner: With the 10-year bond yielding over 2.90 percent, we’ll have to take the possibility of higher interest rates into consideration. Of course, rising bond yields can negatively affect bond-like equities such as Utilities and REITs, so we will have to adjust our sector evaluations accordingly.

If the Fed, under Janet Yellen, continues to cut back on the bond buying—--then we’ll need to adjust how we think and we’ll have to be even more judicious in the coming year as to which stocks we choose to invest in.

EQ: You said recently that you aren't keen on adding new long positions as of right now. Do you see some softness in the market as of where we currently sit? Do you anticipate a pullback in the near future?

Turner: I’ve been anticipating a pullback for the past three months, and I’ve been wrong for the past three months. I’m going to admit that, but I’m also in good company. I think there’s standing room only in this particular  space.

However,  in the first few days of  January, the market has a spongy texture. We’ve watched oil prices fall rather dramatically since the last two trading days of December to where it currently is, and oil prices have fallen even more from the September highs, which was at $104.67. Right now, WTI crude futures are trading at $91.80.

Brent oil has fallen as well, although not as much. I do realize that we have maybe an oversupply of oil in the U.S., but this dramatic fall seems to indicate more than that.

In addition to  falling oil prices,  we can see China’s weakening posture—by looking at the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) , which has fallen 10 percent off the December high. Right now, it’s falling below the November lows of $35.76. As the second-largest economy in the world, if China continues  to lose momentum,  we may see Basic Materials fall in concert and it may put a hitch in the giddy-up in the U.S. market.

EQ: What sectors or industry groups are you watching right now?

Turner: One cannot help but see that Healthcare and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ($XLV) has really moved dramatically higher, and perhaps it can stay in this uptrend for some time to come. Biotechs are getting a lot of play here, though I don’t recommend many  biotechs to novice traders because they can be very volatile. With that said, you can watch the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ($XBI), . although I would wait for a pullback before I entered.

Almost everything right now needs to pull back. I’m watching the Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ($SEA), which I mentioned last time we spoke. A bunch of small shippers here have done well recently, but this too, needs to consolidate before I’d be interested.

Also, I’m watching the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ($FAN), but that too only on a retracement.  I’m pretty much sitting tight here except for a couple of core positions. I want to wait to see what happens with China and with U.S. interest rates.


DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Liked What You Read? Join Equities.com and Connect With Your Favorite Financial Experts FOR FREE! Members of Equities.com gain access to our leading financial news and content, active social investment community, proprietary research tools including the 2014 Small-Cap Stars, E.V.A. reports and more.

Results for AA
Hit The Bid Radio
2 Sep 14 19:05:32
Still own $qqq $aa $aig $kndi $rax $bbry $feye $aria $acor $x $spcb got some smaller lots in $wlt $clf $drl
Market Compass
2 Sep 14 19:01:07
$AA: Alcoa to book charge as it shuts down costly Italian smelter http://t.co/fBdpDGQHIW http://t.co/Xn8rMf2I4I
2 Sep 14 18:58:07
☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #TCFollowTrain #RETWEET #ipad $å{4
2 Sep 14 18:57:46
RT @LandisSchulz373: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #TCFollowTrain #ANDROID #Love…
2 Sep 14 18:56:25
RT @SSwamyKregg: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #ONEDIRECTION #gameinsight $å/k
2 Sep 14 18:55:50
RT @SSwamyKregg: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #ONEDIRECTION #gameinsight $å/k
2 Sep 14 18:46:01
RT @K_att_ieW_hallo: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #mtvhottest #gameinsight #Love…
2 Sep 14 18:45:14
☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #RETWEET #ipad #TCFollowTrain $å(3
2 Sep 14 18:44:05
RT @SSwamyKregg: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #ONEDIRECTION #gameinsight $å/k
2 Sep 14 18:42:01
☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #TCFollowTrain #ANDROID #Love $å$6
Jude Berry
2 Sep 14 18:27:27
RT @stt2318: Just ran a scan. Some early ideas worth a look.... $wtsl $etfc $caas $aa $f $hlt
2 Sep 14 18:23:17
RT @K_att_ieW_hallo: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #mtvhottest #gameinsight #Love…
2 Sep 14 18:22:06
☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #ONEDIRECTION #gameinsight $å/k
Business Updates
2 Sep 14 18:01:06
$AA: US STOCKS-Futures edge lower, investors seek earnings clarity http://t.co/447pl8gyLw http://t.co/EBl2lGS1mp
2 Sep 14 17:52:50
Just ran a scan. Some early ideas worth a look.... $wtsl $etfc $caas $aa $f $hlt
Business News
2 Sep 14 17:01:05
$AA: Billionaire in Middle of Bribery Case Avoids U.S. Probe http://t.co/wulIZhbNUS http://t.co/frTIUGvsc1
2 Sep 14 16:32:09
http://t.co/hjgLwIcNgz Emylers: $AA Up to date company activities and other: Emylers http://t.co/5NTmbaO1d4 http://t.co/hjgLwIcNgz
Market Monitor
2 Sep 14 16:01:12
$AA: COLUMN-As aluminium market shifts to deficit, all eyes on China: Andy Home http://t.co/futxQkc3qx http://t.co/VWlPOxKEIP
Day Traders Group
2 Sep 14 15:54:44
MACD Bullish Crossovers http://t.co/quMVtJcVq2 $MDCA $SPY $NNA $NTI $TWTR $INO $AA $AAPL $GOOGL $MU $HOG $TASR $ISRG $AMZN $NFLX $LRAD $T
Financial Updates
2 Sep 14 15:01:07
$AA: Alcoa Inc (AA) Option Traders Go Bargain Hunting http://t.co/4kasiujWpB http://t.co/rIaVjw4S1N
Alfred Ip
2 Sep 14 14:56:34
wow aluminum and steel...who would have thought $cenx $aa $x $aks
Day Traders Group
2 Sep 14 14:35:21
Gap up with Volume Alerts http://t.co/ZJYwXgW21j $TRUE $DY $NVS $ZEN $SPY $GOL $TWTR $FORM $FB $TSLA $AMZN $NFLX $AA $QQQ $A $AAPL $BBRY
2 Sep 14 14:03:05
☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #iphone #sougofollow #Love $å(y
2 Sep 14 14:03:02
☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #mtvhottest #gameinsight #Love $å&u
Stock Headlines
2 Sep 14 14:01:04
$AA: Business Highlights http://t.co/AQazPNuJnk http://t.co/v6XVxcoJuS
2 Sep 14 13:54:20
RT @HillaryRexer208: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #BELIEBER #gameinsight #Love $…
2 Sep 14 13:52:08
☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #BELIEBER #gameinsight #Love $å(v
Day Traders Group
2 Sep 14 13:33:44
Stochastic Bullish Crossovers http://t.co/B0v0SZPbOB $EEP $DCI $EAT $PPT $SPY $PPC $POOL $TWTR $TSLA $MU $AAPL $FB $F $CMG $T $SNE $EBAY $AA
Stock Market News
2 Sep 14 13:01:08
$AA: Automakers' Shift To Aluminum Boosts Alcoa's Outlook http://t.co/SqMSQizHqb http://t.co/cbQqiTtVRM
2 Sep 14 12:17:43
Biz News Pioneer
2 Sep 14 12:01:07
$AA: Saudi Ma'aden, Alcoa start commercial ops at huge aluminium plant http://t.co/Kr2NMlNhOB http://t.co/x8PCOuyoQt
Future Tech Investor
2 Sep 14 11:51:53
$LOCK breakin out nicely. ID security play $FB $GE $F $TWTR $GPRO $CMG $DGLY $MU $AA $UAL $JRJC $MOBI $GTAT $DDD $SSYS $ONVO $SPLS $TSLA
2 Sep 14 11:44:15
Just blessed $AA by selling my share lets start this breakout
2 Sep 14 11:43:57
Why Footnotes Matter $MWV $HES $ZION $RF $MUR $SYK $VZ $ABC $ED $HAS $AA $CTL $DVN http://t.co/uPxPXlPGr8
Financial News
2 Sep 14 11:01:05
$AA: Alcoa (AA) to Close Italy Smelter and Take Charge in Q3 http://t.co/hdkuuH3XQ9 http://t.co/XcV4gL6po8
2 Sep 14 11:00:19
#LookEast: China property weakness a symptom of reform? http://t.co/HNLQDhGx0z #aviateUS $C $AA $FCX
Future Tech Investor
2 Sep 14 10:43:00
ID theft plays like $LOCK are gettin hot $FB $GE $F $TWTR $GPRO $CMG $DGLY $MU $AA $UAL $JRJC $MOBI $GTAT $DDD $SSYS $ONVO $GILD $SPLS $TSLA
2 Sep 14 10:03:04
@SSRIndustrials Revisions Still Negative, But Little August Downside for a Cheaper Looking Space $CAT $AA $SWK http://t.co/RVAp1b4D1w
Financial Headlines
2 Sep 14 10:01:04
$AA: COLUMN-As aluminium market shifts to deficit, all eyes on China: Andy Home http://t.co/pY0GSEWA7h http://t.co/2SKfkZFPNd
2 Sep 14 10:00:09
$AA Up to date company activities and other important information about $AA http://t.co/sdvNcOSIRJ
Trade Analysis
2 Sep 14 09:50:41
@TweetLeni $CENX now trades in the $26 range while $AA remains around $16. Do you think $AA is working through resistance and will catch up?
2 Sep 14 09:24:46
HAL Stock Chart $HAL $RSP $AA $ACAD http://t.co/mmyxwPNoKF http://t.co/f0XL12UluZ
2 Sep 14 09:23:14
$SPLK Current Price $SPLK Most recent stock chart and technical analysis. $AA $IVAN $MUX $RSP $RFMD $VLO http: http://t.co/JgqWFUNzO5
El Matador Trader
2 Sep 14 09:16:02
Think long term. How many were bullish Alcoa when problems with alum pricing? $AA 50%+ YTD 100%+ 1yr. History repeating with #iron and $VALE
Business News Watch
2 Sep 14 09:01:04
$AA: 3 Reasons Alcoa Inc's Stock Could Fall http://t.co/XMUkPTWFNa http://t.co/25JnNJxqGJ
2 Sep 14 08:28:32
BLOCK TRADE: $AA 1,000,000 shares @ $16.61 [11:28:31]
2 Sep 14 08:17:13
$VTI Total Stock Market ETF Vanguard (VTI) 104.11 +0.23 (+0.22%) $PLKD $AA $GTAT http://t.co/EyImvdUm5K
2 Sep 14 08:05:19
$TASR Taser International (TASR) 16.82 +1.15 (+7.34%) $ANV $TQQQ $AA http://t.co/hLF7vSFuGP
Business Headlines
2 Sep 14 08:01:06
$AA: 3 Reasons Alcoa Inc's Stock Could Fall http://t.co/tutAFrZnkM http://t.co/2gAZ50AGiS
IH News Desk
2 Sep 14 07:58:11
$EWT Change http://t.co/MPUdrLRtZI Also See: $CAR $BAC $UGAZ $AA ~
By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM



blog comments powered by Disqus

About us

Equities.com is the most advanced interactive online social ecosystem for the financial industry, serving as a resource center and next-generation communication platform that connects self-directed investors with public issuers, market experts, and professional service providers and vendors. Registered members can leverage our exclusive proprietary research tools such as the Small-Cap Stars, which outperformed 90% of all small-cap mutual funds, and robust do-it-yourself E.V.A. research reports. The Equities.com Issuer Dashboard is the ideal tool to communicate and manage investor awareness campaigns to the investment community, as well as to access valuable resources to help your company grow.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.