logo
Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?

Register
    

 

Equities – Your destination to connect with the growth investment community.

A New Year Brings New Opportunities for Patient Traders

By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM
Share:
Tickers Mentioned:

The fourth quarter earnings season has officially started, and traders and investors will be watching closely what the market has in store for the coming year. In this week's interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss areas of the market that could potentially still hold some opportunity despite trading at such elevated levels.

EQ: The New Year has barely gotten underway and we're already in earnings season. The fourth quarter should be interesting to see how the year closed out for many different areas of the market. Are there any in particular that you're watching right now?

Turner: Of course, Alcoa, Inc. (AA) kicks off the earnings season Thursday after the market closes. However, I’m actually watching with interest to see how the retailers finished out the fourth quarter. We can see how that works out in the aggregate by watching the SPDR S&P Retail ETF ($XRT). The XRT was up 38 percent in 2013, and so we know that this past year, consumers held up well.

We also know that the U.S. consumer makes up two-thirds of GDP, so in order for this glorious uptrend to continue in the market—and certainly riding on the back of the improving economic numbers—we need retailers to stay strong.

Now, Costco (COST) just reported that sales rose 5 percent in December, beating expectations of 2.6 percent. I know retailers is a highly diverse industry group, with some suffering like Sears Holdings (SHLD) and JC Penney (JCP) , and some doing well like Macy’s (M) and Costco, but I want to see in the as a whole how retailers and the U.S. consumer are doing since they are a key part of our improving environment. So that will be an indicator to me.

EQ: We're arguably in a different economic environment now that the Fed has given a clear indication on the next step of its tapering. Does this affect your approach to the market for 2014 as compared to 2013?

Turner: With the 10-year bond yielding over 2.90 percent, we’ll have to take the possibility of higher interest rates into consideration. Of course, rising bond yields can negatively affect bond-like equities such as Utilities and REITs, so we will have to adjust our sector evaluations accordingly.

If the Fed, under Janet Yellen, continues to cut back on the bond buying—--then we’ll need to adjust how we think and we’ll have to be even more judicious in the coming year as to which stocks we choose to invest in.

EQ: You said recently that you aren't keen on adding new long positions as of right now. Do you see some softness in the market as of where we currently sit? Do you anticipate a pullback in the near future?

Turner: I’ve been anticipating a pullback for the past three months, and I’ve been wrong for the past three months. I’m going to admit that, but I’m also in good company. I think there’s standing room only in this particular  space.

However,  in the first few days of  January, the market has a spongy texture. We’ve watched oil prices fall rather dramatically since the last two trading days of December to where it currently is, and oil prices have fallen even more from the September highs, which was at $104.67. Right now, WTI crude futures are trading at $91.80.

Brent oil has fallen as well, although not as much. I do realize that we have maybe an oversupply of oil in the U.S., but this dramatic fall seems to indicate more than that.

In addition to  falling oil prices,  we can see China’s weakening posture—by looking at the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) , which has fallen 10 percent off the December high. Right now, it’s falling below the November lows of $35.76. As the second-largest economy in the world, if China continues  to lose momentum,  we may see Basic Materials fall in concert and it may put a hitch in the giddy-up in the U.S. market.

EQ: What sectors or industry groups are you watching right now?

Turner: One cannot help but see that Healthcare and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ($XLV) has really moved dramatically higher, and perhaps it can stay in this uptrend for some time to come. Biotechs are getting a lot of play here, though I don’t recommend many  biotechs to novice traders because they can be very volatile. With that said, you can watch the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ($XBI), . although I would wait for a pullback before I entered.

Almost everything right now needs to pull back. I’m watching the Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ($SEA), which I mentioned last time we spoke. A bunch of small shippers here have done well recently, but this too, needs to consolidate before I’d be interested.

Also, I’m watching the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ($FAN), but that too only on a retracement.  I’m pretty much sitting tight here except for a couple of core positions. I want to wait to see what happens with China and with U.S. interest rates.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer


Liked What You Read? Join Equities.com and Connect With Your Favorite Financial Experts FOR FREE! Members of Equities.com gain access to our leading financial news and content, active social investment community, proprietary research tools including the 2014 Small-Cap Stars, E.V.A. reports and more.

Results for AA
IH NASDAQ OMX
4 May 15 12:49:34
ER.TO Eastmain Resources, Inc. Dividend Click Here -> http://t.co/Kh5X47UqjP Trending $ER.TO $GDX $NXPI $AA #ER.TO #share #tradeideas
FlashRatingsHOT
4 May 15 12:42:23
$AA has 5 analyst ratings in the last 7 days. Median target: $16.5 (17% upside). View here: https://t.co/TYTbstURLC #AA
Invest | Donate
4 May 15 12:22:52
@clayton_dd: UUP ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Bid Click Here -> http://t.co/E6mjPxDEyj Trending $UUP $AA $BRK/B $FV #UUP #i…
Rosner Stocks
4 May 15 12:03:09
XLK Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Stock Forum Click Here -> http://t.co/W6yDlH5oeG Trending $XLK $AA $ERX $JNUG #XLK…
SayNoToPlusnet
4 May 15 12:02:10
Hayul #Hayul clayton_dd: UUP ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Bid Click Here -> http://t.co/3ek3Z9k7h9 Trending $UUP $AA $BRK/…
clayton
4 May 15 12:01:34
UUP ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Bid Click Here -> http://t.co/YQNxiM7GLf Trending $UUP $AA $BRK/B $FV #UUP #invest…
PolgarStocks
4 May 15 11:59:35
TLT Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bull 3x Shares Last Price Click Here -> http://t.co/k6Gee8Td2R Trending $TLT $FCX $AA $JNJ…
IH News Desk
4 May 15 11:58:34
SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares Market Cap Click Here -> http://t.co/yKngxHSY1X Trending $SOXL $UWTI $ABX.TO $AA…
Jordan Black
4 May 15 11:56:52
Long $AA here
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 11:56:35
NYMX Ohr Pharmaceutical, Inc. Market Cap Click Here -> http://t.co/SaZS00sK2r Trending $NYMX $DGAZ $AA $UGAZ #NYMX #investing #finance
nasdaqfan
4 May 15 11:53:04
HZU.TO Biotech iShares Day Low Click Here -> http://t.co/ndjcngpcwr Trending $HZU.TO $AA $PXD $UUP #HZU.TO #tradeideas #tradeideas
lookn4wins
4 May 15 11:52:03
GILD SPDR Gold Trust Shares Short Sales Click Here -> http://t.co/aT9EBt63Bx Trending $GILD $AA $TWTR $AXY.TO #GILD #nasdaq #nasdaq
leahanne
4 May 15 11:44:35
AA Alcoa, Inc. Stock Forum Click Here -> http://t.co/iwZ2sEw2Cz Trending $AA $XLK $GILD $CURE #AA #tradeideas #nasdaq
K.W. Peery
4 May 15 11:41:18
RT @PBT_Justine: .@Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld says demand for aluminum has never been stronger: http://t.co/Jf2Pd5aMkn $AA http://t.co/Efefe…
James DiPlata
4 May 15 11:18:38
RT @TradingAlpha11: $SPY $AAPL $TWTR $SWN $PNW $SCTY $PDCO $KORS $TLT $ISRG $LNKD $CCL $FSLR $EW $C $CAH $APC $AA $BABA $ABT Analysis:https…
stockschamp
4 May 15 11:17:27
$71,000 in ONE TRADE!! By Follwing Their Signals More Info Here http://t.co/8WvnrVmkBS .. $AA $BRSS $SHOO
Eric
4 May 15 10:55:42
added contract on weekly's $TWTR -- 39.5 @.28...see if she comes back...if not...will be par for most of my trades lately...exception of $AA
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 10:53:05
ISIS iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction 52Wk High Click Here -> http://t.co/7fXTHxYAbT Trending $ISIS $FDX $AA $FSLR #ISIS…
Lucky Jimmy
4 May 15 10:52:34
HERO Herbalife Ltd. Exchange Click Here -> http://t.co/oYtejHQtV2 Trending $HERO $AA $SSO $NBG #HERO #pennystocks #pennystocks
BreakingStocksNews
4 May 15 10:52:02
$AA: Alcoa sues, claims rival stole trade secrets: http://t.co/uVH91clFLH
leahanne
4 May 15 10:49:34
EOG Eastmain Resources, Inc. Financials Click Here -> http://t.co/BAcaaRNkm1 Trending $EOG $AA $CNQ.TO $CVS #EOG #finance #nasdaq
jim50
4 May 15 10:49:34
ER.TO Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. Change Click Here -> http://t.co/GQrbadjLdy Trending $ER.TO $AA $SLV $CVS #ER.TO #pennystocks…
Rosner Stocks
4 May 15 10:49:17
DIS Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares E.P.S. Click Here -> http://t.co/0vA8PbI8x8 Trending $DIS $FTNT $BOIL $AA #DIS…
Capital Market Labs
4 May 15 10:41:27
$AA vs. $EURN.Y vs. $NEM vs. $NUE Compared Across 9 Critical Measures http://t.co/HeoeVvHULS http://t.co/LVKWW417Oy
Trading Alpha
4 May 15 10:26:42
$SPY $AAPL $TWTR $SWN $PNW $SCTY $PDCO $KORS $TLT $ISRG $LNKD $CCL $FSLR $EW $C $CAH $APC $AA $BABA $ABT Analysis:https://t.co/L2A7ASCiTU
Brandon Mistero
4 May 15 10:24:45
If $AA goes below $14, I think I'll be out. Lucky enough to have that huge move upside to basically move my position to the flat line.
danrocks
4 May 15 10:01:06
TLT Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares Exchange Click Here -> http://t.co/cD3jA9Nx62 Trending $TLT $AA $RGSE $UPRO #TLT #invest…
Stock Wire
4 May 15 09:58:10
Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) a Buy: Standpoint $AA http://t.co/Qzi65TGjFf
nasdaqfan
4 May 15 09:57:07
OIH Oracle Corp. E.P.S. Click Here -> http://t.co/O6kncTgm6d Trending $OIH $MDY $G.TO $AA #OIH #stocks #pennystocks
Seeking Alpha Alerts
4 May 15 09:55:17
@brianwilbs $AA A Tailwind For Alcoa That Most Seem To Be Overlooking http://t.co/kTYEVAPqdZ
Seeking Alpha Alerts
4 May 15 09:55:17
@AJEvansII $AA A Tailwind For Alcoa That Most Seem To Be Overlooking http://t.co/kTYEVAPqdZ
Seeking Alpha Alerts
4 May 15 09:55:16
@booksnends $AA A Tailwind For Alcoa That Most Seem To Be Overlooking http://t.co/kTYEVAPqdZ
Seeking Alpha Alerts
4 May 15 09:55:16
@hansonecon $AA A Tailwind For Alcoa That Most Seem To Be Overlooking http://t.co/kTYEVAPqdZ
Seeking Alpha Alerts
4 May 15 09:55:16
@Jpmidd16 $AA A Tailwind For Alcoa That Most Seem To Be Overlooking http://t.co/kTYEVAPqdZ
Breaking News Now
4 May 15 09:52:04
$AA: Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) a Buy: Standpoint: http://t.co/cSFib8o1RD
DennyT
4 May 15 09:45:05
ADMD American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. 52Wk High Click Here -> http://t.co/EnHZhvc3Jh Trending $ADMD $BRK/B $AA $AAPL #ADMD #stocks…
lookn4wins
4 May 15 09:44:35
AA Alcoa, Inc. Ask Size Click Here -> http://t.co/ZNSyujLwfN Trending $AA $C $MCD $XOM #AA #stocks #stockmarket
Peter McCaffrey
4 May 15 09:31:51
@jimcramer $AA Is a core position felt it was new tecnology bet too bad it trades as comodity, cost basis 8.33 tk u JC and KK
iHangout
4 May 15 09:28:32
leahanne: Stock Alerts: Volume Alert - AA 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a high http://t.co/XyZh595I3z
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 09:27:19
leahanne: Volume Alert - AA 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a high http://t.co/pecQk1fqvg
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 09:27:18
leahanne: Volume Alert - AA Stock 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a http://t.co/9ffxoFU7OS
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 09:27:18
leahanne: Volume Alert - AA 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a high http://t.co/iWK93D3Uti
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 09:27:18
leahanne: Volume Alert - AA Stock 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a http://t.co/iMCdzIcNBl
iHangout
4 May 15 09:27:16
leahanne: $AA Alcoa Inc.: Volume Alert - AA Stock 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a http://t.co/kR4b3040Sy
leahanne
4 May 15 09:26:25
Volume Alert - AA 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a high today of 14.25 Closing the day 11:47 at 14.10 -0.05 -0.35% Wi http://t.co/Hh3FDl8IKJ
leahanne
4 May 15 09:26:03
$AA Volume Alert - AA Stock 14.10 Alcoa Inc $AA Hit a high today of 14.25 Closing the day 11:47 at 14.10 -0.05 -0. http://t.co/EsEcJtB05e
Capital Market Labs
4 May 15 09:10:38
Largest Metals and Mining Assets 1: $FCX 2: $AA 3: $NEM Chart: http://t.co/fmleoFYup3 http://t.co/annvrtYsG0
Stock Wire
4 May 15 09:10:30
Interesting June Stock Options for Alcoa $AA http://t.co/QlJXt0fu8B
ProTradersNews
4 May 15 09:07:04
$AA: Interesting June Stock Options for Alcoa: http://t.co/hSuOR3GxEW
BNK Invest
4 May 15 09:06:36
Interesting June Stock Options for $AA #stockoptions http://t.co/EQjzh1DE0P
				
				
By  +Follow January 10, 2014 8:45AM
Share:

Comments

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

About us

Equities.com is the most advanced interactive online social ecosystem for the financial industry, serving as a resource center and next-generation communication platform that connects self-directed investors with public issuers, market experts, and professional service providers and vendors. Registered members can leverage our exclusive proprietary research tools such as the Small-Cap Stars, which outperformed 90% of all small-cap mutual funds, and robust do-it-yourself E.V.A. research reports. The Equities.com Issuer Dashboard is the ideal tool to communicate and manage investor awareness campaigns to the investment community, as well as to access valuable resources to help your company grow.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.

Login or Register

LOG IN