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A recent academic paper, Equal or Value Weighting? Implications for Asset-Pricing Tests, highlights two methods of weighting: Equal weight and Value weight. As the paper states: With monthly rebalancing, an equal-weighted portfolio outperforms a value-weighted portfolio in terms of total mean return, four-factor alpha, and Sharpe ratio…The higher systematic return of the equal-weighted portfolio relative to the…
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Stock trading is not an exact science. If it were, it would be handled by accountants. No method is complete in and of itself. Even if you learn a 300-page manual on technical analysis by heart, I can assure you that you'll still lose money. The winning recipe is a…
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Today I decided to touch on a subject that is not market specific or a market outlook but rather a trading technique I found to suit my "trading blood type." In the trading world, there are many ways to make and lose money. Some traders like options, others like to…
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In today’s global monetary system, money is created out of thin air — like magic — but it can disappear even faster. As I explained in a webinar for our Boom & Bust Elite subscribers, I’m not just talking QE here. Almost all of the money in our system is…
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While the S&P 500 managed to notch yet another new all-time high, investors remain uneasy about the market's recent volatility. In our latest interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss key levels to watch and her thoughts on momentum opportunities. EQ: The S&P 500 just closed another…
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Daniel and Moskowitz (2014) and Barroso and Santa-Clara (2015) showed that the returns of momentum investing are negatively skewed. Specifically, the return distribution of momentum is largely concentrated on the right side with fat tails (i.e., momentum strategies yield positive returns but can also experience infrequent but significant negative returns). Thus, when pursuing high returns of…
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Sunrays are peeping through the window of Mr. Average Investor’s home. Good morning! Mr. Average heads for the kitchen, makes coffee, and pulls a few cookies from the box. Heading toward the family room, Mr. Average detours to pick up the newspaper tossed at his doorstep earlier and eyes the…
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As I read the news and watch the markets, I’m struck by the yawning difference between what’s going on with the economy and what is happening with equities. I know the worn out arguments. People are buying stocks because they don’t have many choices...and that’s fair, to some extent. The…
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I have been touting a major top in stocks, especially in the Dow and the largest small-cap index, the Russell 2000. With each new bubble, we reach higher highs, and then crash to lower lows. It’s such an obvious megaphone pattern that I’m not sure how anyone could miss it.…
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The US stock market has been taking two steps forward and one step back for several years now. That is a recipe for a long Bull Market, just like the one we have enjoyed since 2009. Having strong returns over several cycles requires not having big drawdowns. That’s why now…
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We've been watching the Bond markets closely over the last few weeks. We were ahead of the curve in our discussion of negative interest rates among G7 countries and had already issued trade alerts within this segment prior to Bill Gross' announcement of the German Bund being, "the short of…
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Last month saw the announcement of one the biggest UK M&A (mergers and acquisitions) deals in a while, with Royal Dutch Shell ($RDS.A) set to gobble up BG Group plc (BG)  for £47bn. That the news came from the oil and gas sector was little surprise, with low oil prices leading to some huge share price moves among major…
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