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Many sophisticated investors use “developed” and “emerging” as classifiers of risks related to country and regional indexes. Yet, both developed and emerging markets have a mix of transparency and ESG (environmental, social, governance) performance that are also additional factors of analyzing future risk for intelligent investors. Adding these classifications to…
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July 2015 was a volatile month, as investors had to navigate two potential external shocks (Greece and China) and digest the latest round of economic and earnings data. After all was said and done, stocks ended the week and month higher after successfully testing critical support (bottom of the year-long trading…
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How can one beat the market? Answer: To beat the market, you have to be different than the market. One simple way to do this is to hold a small number of stocks. But is this naive approach a good bet? Our Experiment Each month, we select the largest 1,000 US stocks to form our universe.…
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This week will be a short myopic view of the internal workings of the interest rate futures market sector focusing on a potential short selling opportunity in the 10-year Treasury Note futures. The setup for the trade begins with the yield rally from April - May. We'll pick it up…
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Defining an Upward Trend When a series forms that consists of two rising highs and two rising lows, it defines the uptrend. In the chart above, we see three rising lows and four rising highs, which is a very clear upward movement. Notice that the fifth high is lower than…
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As we dive further into the twenty-first century, many fantasy and futurist ideas from the past have slowly become a reality: watches double as phones, robots can clean our homes, and even though they can't fly yet, our cars can greet us and give directions. Many people believe that the…
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In 1838, James Grant published The Great Metroplis, Volume 2. Within, he spoke of David Ricardo, an English political economist that was active in the London markets in the late 1700s and early 1800s. Ricardo amassed a large fortune trading both bonds and stocks. According to Grant, Ricardo’s success was…
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Forward-looking international investors evaluate all risks, especially those that are knowable yet ignored by the market. These metrics can be leading indicators of future financial performance – if intelligent investors are willing to analyze them. The metrics of impact, sustainability, and ESG (environmental, social, governance) provide intelligent investors with extra…
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The year-long trading range we have seen on Wall Street continued, as the benchmark S&P 500 pulled back last week after flirting with resistance (the top of its year-long range). Earnings remain front and center as a slew of companies announced their Q2 results. So far, approximately 75% of companies…
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Recently we wrote of a potential way to time the market using valuation-based signals. In the past, we have also examined how to use momentum-based signals (moving average rules and time-series momentum) to time the market. A natural question then becomes: what happens when we combine the valuation-based signals with the momentum-based signals?…
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Profitable Growth is what matters In April I blogged about EPS Growth, and followed this with a post about profitability (Replace “E” with “A” to Truly Understand Business Profitability). Today, I focus on a combination of these profitability and growth measures, which I call “Profitable Growth” Profitability: It’s about how…
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While traders are fans of market volatility, the irratic movements we've witnessed the past several weeks could throw even the most savvy ones for a loop. In our latest interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss recent pops and drops from major earnings surprises, whether the market…
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