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In 1838, James Grant published The Great Metroplis, Volume 2. Within, he spoke of David Ricardo, an English political economist that was active in the London markets in the late 1700s and early 1800s. Ricardo amassed a large fortune trading both bonds and stocks. According to Grant, Ricardo’s success was…
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Profitable Growth is what matters In April I blogged about EPS Growth, and followed this with a post about profitability (Replace “E” with “A” to Truly Understand Business Profitability). Today, I focus on a combination of these profitability and growth measures, which I call “Profitable Growth” Profitability: It’s about how…
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Book-to-Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns, by Griffin and Lemmon (2002 Journal of Finance) investigates the relationship between value premiums and distress risk. There are two schools of thought on the value premium (the large spread in realized returns between cheap stocks and expensive stocks). On the one hand, there is…
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I believe that as of late, the Russell 2000 index and it's future contract, the mini Russell 2000 are the leaders in stock market behavior. With the recent sell off in equities, the big drop in China's index, and the 4% drop in the Nikkei this morning, I wanted to…
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The Japanese candlestick method is retro and amazing, and started in…the 18th century! The method was developed by Munehisa Homma, a Japanese rice trader (1724-1803) who was one of the first to make use of past rice prices to predict future prices. And the method really worked! Munehisa became very…
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The trader’s main working tool is the chart or graph. A chart’s function is to present stock price history and indicate its future direction via conclusions based on the past: a kind of financial crystal ball where there is no present, and only the past exists. A nanosecond beforehand is…
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NASDAQ High Imminent The NASDAQ Composite chart above depicts a cyclical pattern that is worthy of examination. I have included the MACD (12,26,9) plot below for added clarity in depicting my cyclical turns. Note how the cyclical turns coincide with pivotal reversals in the MACD indicator. Note, too, the average…
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Barron’s recently ran an article titled “Get Smart About Picking Dividend-Rich Stocks,” highlighting that high-quality high-dividend-paying stocks outperform low-quality high-dividend-paying stocks. The quality of the firm is measured by profitability, financial distress and accounting red flags. Investigating a Simpler Way to Identify Top-Performing Dividend Stocks Let's start by sorting the high dividend-paying firms by a simple value investing measure–EBIT/TEV.…
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Is technical analysis an art or an exact science? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Senior analysts in Tradenet’s trading room often ask me whether it’s worth buying this or that stock, and my answer could very well be that it’s actually worth selling the stock. If…
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This has been the most-scorned, the most mistrusted bull market in history. Why? Probably because most investors do not believe it’s real. Conventional wisdom has it that this mother-of-all bull markets has been the byproduct of overly inflated, non-nonsensical monetary policy actions rather than the result of fundamental economic growth…
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Slowly Rolling Over Little by little, the rollover is commencing. Just as the top took considerable time to form, the rollover process, too, is slow to take form. But my indicators that measure both price range as well as price velocity across a multitude of time frames are heading southbound.…
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Clearly, we hit a hot spot with last week's piece. So much so, that I kept digging. I came up with more questions than answers but in asking those questions I came up with some data points and open ended questions worth pondering. We'll look at the push and pull…
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