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The consensus I’m hearing and reading from the 500+ attendees at the recent Strategic Investment Conference is that this was the best ever. It was certainly intense, with more divergent views presented this year than at previous conferences. Plus, the range of topics was rather dramatic. This year I was…
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Stock trading is not an exact science. If it were, it would be handled by accountants. No method is complete in and of itself. Even if you learn a 300-page manual on technical analysis by heart, I can assure you that you'll still lose money. The winning recipe is a…
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As we continue to work our way through earnings season, we see the revenue story playing out as we and many analysts have anticipated since early this year: a strong U.S. Dollar is proving to be a headwind for U. S. companies -- and conversely, a weak Euro is providing…
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Relative vs. Absolute Value As I watch valuations on stocks soar higher and higher into the stratosphere, I keep asking "where is the value?" The problem for most is confusing "relative" value vs. absolute value. Stocks may be "cheap vs. bonds" but what does that matter if bonds are ridiculously…
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Whether managing a business or investing in one, it is critical to focus on earnings-per-share (EPS) growth. This one measure tells almost the entire story of a business. My analysis of 8,000 companies across the globe shows that their combined EPS has been contracting by 3% per year over the…
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Where can investors turn when global quantitative easing and the Energizer Bunny of dollars is crushing commodity prices to within an inch of the junior miners' lives? In this interview with The Mining Report, Disruptive Discoveries Journal writer Chris Berry suggests dedicating yourself to understanding the technologies and paradigm shifts…
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As a person who studies and writes about markets for a living, I have a responsibility to stay informed. I check interest rates every single working day - and often more than just once! I glance at the 10-year Treasury yield at least six or seven times a day, and…
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In late 2008, we knew we had a problem. For years, we had used the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) for predicting recessions before they occurred. This leading indicator had a much better track record than many more traditional indicators. But after quantitative easing (QE) started in November of that…
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Our regular readers know that we have been vigilant for signs of rising inflation for the past few years. While it has shown up in certain countries, or appeared in specific markets for short periods of time, it has definitely not been persistent. On the contrary, deflationary pressures have been…
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Stocks ended mixed during the shortened holiday week as investors digested the latest round of weaker-than-expected economic data. The self-described data-dependent Fed will likely err on the side of keeping rates low for the foreseeable future because the “data” remains very weak. The Fed has held rates near zero since the 2008…
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Abstract: Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of “financial repression.” Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps…
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Over the years, I have developed a hierarchy of four macroeconomic cycles. I developed my first cycle in 1988, when my research culminated in the Generational Spending Wave, a very projectable demographic cycle spanning roughly 39 to 40 years that looks at how people spend as they age. Since then,…
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