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A new working paper from Gennaili, Ma, and the one-the-only Andrei Shleifer. Expectations and Investment Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs’ expectations of earnings growth. The information in…
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Back in April I wrote this piece: Wondering if bonds hit double top, well hindsight is 20/20 and it seems I was definitely right about this one. The question now is where is this volatile market heading next? Before I jump in to take a look at the charts, one…
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As was widely expected, the second estimate of US Q1 2015 GDP flipped the initially reported slight growth (0.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate) to a small contraction (-0.7%). This was actually less of a dip than the -0.9% read analysts expected, but a dip nonetheless. And with it came media…
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A recurring theme in my letters is the various ways in which we can go about determining valuations for stocks and other investments. My good friend Steve Blumenthal has gathered a number of charts from various authorities showing different ways to look at valuations for today’s US stock market. He…
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Everywhere I go I’m asked, “Will there be inflation or deflation? Are we in a bull or bear market? Is the bond bull market over and will interest rates rise?” The flippant answer to all those questions is “Yes.” And that can be the correct answer as well, but it…
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The long-standing debate between fundamental and technical analysis began when the first analyst drew a line between two points representing a stock’s price changes over the axis of time, thereby creating the very first price graph.  The essence of the dispute is whether to buy a stock based on company…
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The consensus I’m hearing and reading from the 500+ attendees at the recent Strategic Investment Conference is that this was the best ever. It was certainly intense, with more divergent views presented this year than at previous conferences. Plus, the range of topics was rather dramatic. This year I was…
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Stock trading is not an exact science. If it were, it would be handled by accountants. No method is complete in and of itself. Even if you learn a 300-page manual on technical analysis by heart, I can assure you that you'll still lose money. The winning recipe is a…
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As we continue to work our way through earnings season, we see the revenue story playing out as we and many analysts have anticipated since early this year: a strong U.S. Dollar is proving to be a headwind for U. S. companies -- and conversely, a weak Euro is providing…
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Relative vs. Absolute Value As I watch valuations on stocks soar higher and higher into the stratosphere, I keep asking "where is the value?" The problem for most is confusing "relative" value vs. absolute value. Stocks may be "cheap vs. bonds" but what does that matter if bonds are ridiculously…
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Whether managing a business or investing in one, it is critical to focus on earnings-per-share (EPS) growth. This one measure tells almost the entire story of a business. My analysis of 8,000 companies across the globe shows that their combined EPS has been contracting by 3% per year over the…
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Where can investors turn when global quantitative easing and the Energizer Bunny of dollars is crushing commodity prices to within an inch of the junior miners' lives? In this interview with The Mining Report, Disruptive Discoveries Journal writer Chris Berry suggests dedicating yourself to understanding the technologies and paradigm shifts…
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