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Turnaround Stock Portfolio Week #2: Our Losers Are Winners! (So Far)

  +Follow October 4, 2013 9:00AM
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On Sept. 25 Equities began tracking ten stocks we dubbed “the Turnaround Stock Portfolio.” Unlike our other ongoing experiment the FUNY index, which is arbitrary and made up entirely of stocks with funny ticker symbols, the Turnaround Portfolio is based on quantified performance – poor performance, that is.

In 8 out of 10 cases, the stock had a negative return on the year. In the other two, the stock was either down over the last two years or was up marginally. And every stock in the portfolio was, at the start date, experiencing an ongoing crisis in leadership, worrying competition, or other major crisis.

But we didn’t pick stock destined for the toilet – in every case the stock had a potential to come back, and rebound from their past underperformance.

Component Spotlight

As we continue tracking the Turnaround Portfolio, we’ll be highlighting a few of its components and delve further into why we included this or that particular stock. This week, we’ll be looking at our Financial, Tech, and Consumer picks.  

Financial Sector Pick: Tower Group International Ltd. (TWGP)

Tower Group is a Bermuda-based property and casualty insurer who, at the time of the Turnaround Portfolio formation, was experiencing a fairly unusual crisis. Simply put, Tower Group was refusing to release their second quarter earnings report, having delayed it twice, which understandably spooked the heck out of investors. As a result, the stock lost over 60 percent of its value in six weeks.

Tower Group has only hinted that losses were far more numerous and severe than anticipated, and the company needed time to fully assess the extent of them. Estimates peg the unexpected losses at up to $110 million. Tower’s troubles date back to last summer, when the company was initially rocked by a rush of Hurricane Sandy claims.

Why We Picked Tower Group:

If an insurance company survives a natural disaster like Sandy, it can actually work out better for them in the long run, as it will cause future premiums for customers to rise. After all, the areas hit by Sandy have shown that they are in a hurricane prone-area.

That is, after all, a big “if,” and investors will know more when the company does finally release those second quarter earnings in “the week of October 7.”

Technology Sector Pick: Zynga Inc. (ZNGA)

Zynga was supposed to signal a new development in gaming. As Facebook Inc. (FB) built a social media empire Zynga was tight in the thick of it, making games exclusively for the burgeoning social media behemoth. The game Farmville, especially, was a robust hit for the company.

The company had their IPO on Dec. 2011 at $10 a share for a $7 billion evaluation. Things went downhill from there. Zynga was targeted for spamming Facebook user’s feeds with its game, and Facebook took action to scrub Zynga off their platform. The stock proceeded to tank, the company’s founder and CEO quit, and the company got surpassed by red-hot competitor King, who is about to have an IPO of their own. A last-ditch foray into gambling was recently officially shelved.

Why We Picked Zynga:

Zynga is an anomaly in the portfolio, as they are actually up substantially on the year. But they are still viewed overall as a disappointment, as they are down over 60 percent since IPO. Gaming stocks in general are doing well this year, and if Zynga can continue riding social gaming’s resurgence there’s still a chance they could get it together.

Consumer Sector Pick: JC Penney (JCP)

Where to start? The case of JC Penney is going to be taught in business schools for years to come in as a cautionary tale of what not to do to turn a company around.

The short version is, in a radical attempt to revamp the company, activist investor Bill Ackman installed Ron Johnson from Apple Inc. ($AAPL) as the new CEO, and the company engaged in a massive reform. The overhaul, which attempted to modernize the storied department chain, failed miserably, and customers fled in droves. Ackman ended up selling his stake with his tail between his legs, finally admitting the whole thing was a huge mistake.

The company still hasn’t recovered. Formerly the second-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 at just a tick better than Turnaround Portfolio stablemate Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) , JC Penney is now far and away the index' worst returner, with a 57 percent loss in value this year.

Why We Picked JC Penney:

As is right now, it sits at its lowest price since the day after the October 1929 crash. If new CEO (actually, old CEO, re-installed) Myron Ullman can right the ship, JC Penney has the proven capability and resources to once again become profitable. The stock could see a nice upswing if they can win customers back that Ron Johnson lost.

Turnaround Portfolio Performance Check-In

Here’s how the Turnaround Portfolio looked after the bell on October 3:

Portfolio Return Since 9/25: 1.55 Percent

S&P Return Since 9/25: 0.06 Percent

So far, the Turnaround Portfolio is beating the S&P handily. Good work, us!* The excellent week of Quicksilver Resources Inc (KWK) and Atlantic Power Corp (AT) definitely carried it, while JC Penney continued getting rocked.

Check in with us next week as we continue profiling this group of losers that so far is beating the S&P.

*We make no assumptions about what may or may not happen to this portfolio going forward, nor do we advocate investing or not investing in these stocks. Investors are expected to do their own due diligence and consult professionals before sinking their money into anything.

Our interest is purely academic, and we made the Turnaround Portfoilo for our own amusement. We are easily amused.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer


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Results for jcp
Wall Street
4 Aug 15 05:59:20
The Penny Stock Superstar team voted #1 OTC trading group. http://t.co/cQ0lLTokka Related: $TRXC $JCP $IBN $ESI $ABEV $ODP
SIAnalystWire
4 Aug 15 05:58:58
Piper Jaffray Positive on New J. C. Penney $JCP Executive Hires http://t.co/DroTjQdeOF
Thudder & Wicks
4 Aug 15 05:57:30
Early movers: $AET, $TIME, $REGN, $BABA, $ADM, $COH, $CVS, $S, $AIG, $JCP & more http://t.co/hNPYhmHmN5
Dennis Fulton
4 Aug 15 05:57:12
RT @MariaHalkias: JCPenney CEO Marvin Ellison hires execs from Home Depot and Target $JCP $HD $TGT @DMNbiz http://t.co/a3KH4rK975 http://t…
Sleek Money
4 Aug 15 05:50:48
J C Penney Company Stock Rating Reaffirmed by Oppenheimer $JCP http://t.co/B5f4R9habh
Korri Kezar
4 Aug 15 05:30:09
.@jcpnews hired two new execs to build up its omnichannel shopping experience. http://t.co/okDgT4uBRE. $JCP. http://t.co/ZmFFu5seTA
Clark Joseph Kent
4 Aug 15 05:29:04
Early Movers $AET $TIME $BABA $REGN $ADM $COH $CVS $S $AIG $JCP $CAR $TXRH $ALL $MDAS $RBS $CYH $HD $TGT http://t.co/Xk9ynYfeVL
Wall Street
4 Aug 15 05:25:17
The Penny Stock Superstar team voted #1 OTC trading group. http://t.co/cQ0lLTokka Related: $TRXC $JCP $IBN $ESI $ABEV $ODP
Greg David
4 Aug 15 05:20:33
http://t.co/APzP66vnr4 nailed 22 picks in a row last week. Awesome. Google them. Related: $QEP $ATML $VIV $SBS $SVU $JCP $BRCD $DDD
Tom Wrigley
4 Aug 15 05:03:05
Early movers: $AET, $TIME, $REGN, $BABA, $ADM $COH $CVS $S $AIG $JCP $CAR $TXRH $ALL $MDAS $TM $RBS $CYH http://t.co/KA5mHNB9Gp
Capital Market Labs
4 Aug 15 04:22:27
Interactive Chart -> http://t.co/AvAmTSZLA2 $JCP Cash from Operations is Growing. http://t.co/jnOzB2FKex
Zonebourse News
4 Aug 15 03:22:04
#JCPenney : deux arrivées sur le front du multicanal. http://t.co/nI28OXOKFF $JCP
Paul Henry
4 Aug 15 02:23:02
Our Penny Stock Picks Have Gained 3,600% In 10 Months! Check Out Today's New Pick: http://t.co/t0r9UuegVH $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
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4 Aug 15 02:22:02
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Michael Cook
4 Aug 15 02:21:40
Our Stock Alerts Gained Over 550% In 5 Weeks! See Our MASSIVE New Pick Coming Today: http://t.co/fGwKBvGfsd $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
The PBR1000
4 Aug 15 00:46:23
#JCPenney(PBR234) hires Michael Amend as EVP, Omnichannel, & Mike Robbins as SVP, Supply Chain. http://t.co/Y3VWOFYPLe $JCP #ThePBR1000
Jann Gobble
3 Aug 15 22:07:18
$JCP News: 7 Tips for Back-To-School Spending http://t.co/hqhMP8rmeR
Thudder & Wicks
3 Aug 15 21:56:20
$JCP Hires $HD, $TGT Executives to Boost Online Offerings http://t.co/7rmWA7lvHR
Michael James
3 Aug 15 20:03:54
After A Powerful 525% Gain On $GEQU, We Have A New Pick! Major News: http://t.co/oqwhLnQZ1q $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Paul Henry
3 Aug 15 19:54:28
Our Penny Stock Picks Have Gained 3,600% In 10 Months! Check Out Tomorrow's New Pick: http://t.co/t0r9UuegVH $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Michael Cook
3 Aug 15 19:54:10
Our Stock Alerts Gained Over 550% In 5 Weeks! See Our MASSIVE New Pick Coming Tomorrow: http://t.co/fGwKBvGfsd $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Stock Dawgzz
3 Aug 15 19:13:07
Our Members Saw Their Stock Picks Gain Over 550% In 5 Weeks! See The Major New Pick For Tomorrow: http://t.co/PkGNRnhRUn $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Penny Stockington
3 Aug 15 19:11:38
Our Stock Pick On $GEQU Nearly QUADRUPLED In Value In Less Than 2 Weeks! Special Update: http://t.co/9b1cAxd103 $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
BigBullish
3 Aug 15 19:11:02
I'm better than good RT 8/7/14: @BigBullish: undervalued and will continue to rise $JCP --> 20range $WWE --> 19range $LGF --> 36.5 range
StockenheimerSchmidt
3 Aug 15 19:08:17
Huge Moves On Our Penny Stock Picks Lately! Big New Pick Tomorrow: http://t.co/bBikX3EmVd $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Stock Rocket
3 Aug 15 19:04:16
Our Penny Stock Alerts Gained 550% In Less Than 6 Weeks! Check Out Our New Plan: http://t.co/BkSWN0kRab $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Stockaholics
3 Aug 15 19:03:45
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ron w
3 Aug 15 18:01:27
RT @CNBCnow: J.C. Penney announces 2 senior exec. appointments; Michael Amend to succeed Mike Rodgers, who was EVP of omnichannel • $JCP
Michael James
3 Aug 15 17:02:31
After A Powerful 525% Gain On $GEQU, We Have A New Pick! Major News: http://t.co/oqwhLnQZ1q $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Paul Henry
3 Aug 15 16:51:48
Our Penny Stock Picks Have Gained 3,600% In 10 Months! Check Out Tomorrow's New Pick: http://t.co/t0r9UuvRNf $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Russell Barbour
3 Aug 15 16:14:45
http://t.co/MwFEenHRxs <-- This millionaire trader teaches stock trading strategy and he is the BEST $AMBA $JDST $JCP $MBLY $HALO
Alpha Maven Alerts
3 Aug 15 16:11:59
$JCP active, relative volume: 12.86, 1H, 7:00 PM, #nyse
IH News Desk
3 Aug 15 15:53:07
XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Tick http://t.co/7m4TwPiZrM $XLY $JCP $FEYE $NXPI #XLY #stockmarket #pennystocks
binaryoptionsocial
3 Aug 15 15:52:26
JCP JC Penney Co, Inc. Financials http://t.co/qAtZZ2MDH4 $JCP $DIS $AVXL $FB #JCP #tradeideas #invest http://t.co/Csk7miIhta
Investors Hangout
3 Aug 15 15:52:07
XIV VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN % Change http://t.co/1Qnlu42jY8 $XIV $BIDU $JCP $CVC #XIV #tradeideas #nasdaq
IH NASDAQ OMX
3 Aug 15 15:51:05
WMIH WMI Holdings Corp. % Change http://t.co/exshKDbU2u $WMIH $JCP $FXI $GDXJ #WMIH #pennystocks #stockmarket
Lucky Jimmy
3 Aug 15 15:50:28
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund Change http://t.co/dA7MNyvpP9 $UUP $UTX $SBUX $JCP #UUP #finance #pennystocks
Penny Stockington
3 Aug 15 15:49:26
Our Stock Pick On $GEQU Nearly QUADRUPLED In Value In Less Than 2 Weeks! Special Update: http://t.co/9b1cAxuBRB $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
lookn4wins
3 Aug 15 15:49:03
TNA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares Prev Close http://t.co/T4zyeP8nGO $TNA $DD $JCP $AAPL #TNA #investing #nasdaq
Stock Rocket
3 Aug 15 15:48:19
Our Penny Stock Alerts Gained 550% In Less Than 6 Weeks! Check Out Our New Plan: http://t.co/BkSWN03fLB $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
StockenheimerSchmidt
3 Aug 15 15:47:51
Huge Moves On Our Penny Stock Picks Lately! Big New Pick Tomorrow: http://t.co/bBikX3EmVd $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
DennyT
3 Aug 15 15:47:11
SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ Financials http://t.co/CRlIVdSxNh $SQQQ $GG $JCP $CVC #SQQQ #share #share
Stock_Tracker
3 Aug 15 15:47:10
TAN Guggenheim Solar ETF Investor Opinions http://t.co/qJ7kcXeUM9 $TAN $EWY $JCP $SMN #TAN #investing #investing
Lucky Jimmy
3 Aug 15 15:46:18
SLW Silver Wheaton Corp. Stock Forum http://t.co/VECOJNNLnk $SLW $SBUX $XIV $JCP #SLW #invest #finance
Stock Forums
3 Aug 15 15:46:13
SBUX Starbucks Corp. Ask http://t.co/NyZcVTMZiP $SBUX $FEYE $PYPL $JCP #SBUX #tradeideas #tradeideas
PolgarStocks
3 Aug 15 15:46:11
SBUX Starbucks Corp. Ask http://t.co/hUUspBvPgj $SBUX $FEYE $PYPL $JCP #SBUX #tradeideas #tradeideas
Stock Dawgzz
3 Aug 15 15:46:08
Our Members Saw Their Stock Picks Gain Over 550% In 5 Weeks! See The Major New Pick For Tomorrow: http://t.co/PkGNRn0h2P $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Stockaholics
3 Aug 15 15:44:58
Platinum Subscribers Saw Our Picks Gain 4,000% In 10 Months! Subscribe Today: http://t.co/VPf7gjQhnU $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
IH News Desk
3 Aug 15 15:44:41
MU Micron Technology, Inc. Summary http://t.co/UWadZ9DjOK $MU $JCP $JNK $VTI #MU #invest #tradeideasMYEC MyECheck, Inc. Filings…
clayton
3 Aug 15 15:44:40
RIG Transocean, Inc. P/E Ratio http://t.co/S1eTXisvh5 $RIG $GE $DDD $JCP #RIG #stock #share
				
				
  +Follow October 4, 2013 9:00AM
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