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Turnaround Stock Portfolio Week #2: Our Losers Are Winners! (So Far)

  +Follow October 4, 2013 9:00AM
Tickers Mentioned:

On Sept. 25 Equities began tracking ten stocks we dubbed “the Turnaround Stock Portfolio.” Unlike our other ongoing experiment the FUNY index, which is arbitrary and made up entirely of stocks with funny ticker symbols, the Turnaround Portfolio is based on quantified performance – poor performance, that is.

In 8 out of 10 cases, the stock had a negative return on the year. In the other two, the stock was either down over the last two years or was up marginally. And every stock in the portfolio was, at the start date, experiencing an ongoing crisis in leadership, worrying competition, or other major crisis.

But we didn’t pick stock destined for the toilet – in every case the stock had a potential to come back, and rebound from their past underperformance.

Component Spotlight

As we continue tracking the Turnaround Portfolio, we’ll be highlighting a few of its components and delve further into why we included this or that particular stock. This week, we’ll be looking at our Financial, Tech, and Consumer picks.  

Financial Sector Pick: Tower Group International Ltd. (TWGP)

Tower Group is a Bermuda-based property and casualty insurer who, at the time of the Turnaround Portfolio formation, was experiencing a fairly unusual crisis. Simply put, Tower Group was refusing to release their second quarter earnings report, having delayed it twice, which understandably spooked the heck out of investors. As a result, the stock lost over 60 percent of its value in six weeks.

Tower Group has only hinted that losses were far more numerous and severe than anticipated, and the company needed time to fully assess the extent of them. Estimates peg the unexpected losses at up to $110 million. Tower’s troubles date back to last summer, when the company was initially rocked by a rush of Hurricane Sandy claims.

Why We Picked Tower Group:

If an insurance company survives a natural disaster like Sandy, it can actually work out better for them in the long run, as it will cause future premiums for customers to rise. After all, the areas hit by Sandy have shown that they are in a hurricane prone-area.

That is, after all, a big “if,” and investors will know more when the company does finally release those second quarter earnings in “the week of October 7.”

Technology Sector Pick: Zynga Inc. (ZNGA)

Zynga was supposed to signal a new development in gaming. As Facebook Inc. (FB) built a social media empire Zynga was tight in the thick of it, making games exclusively for the burgeoning social media behemoth. The game Farmville, especially, was a robust hit for the company.

The company had their IPO on Dec. 2011 at $10 a share for a $7 billion evaluation. Things went downhill from there. Zynga was targeted for spamming Facebook user’s feeds with its game, and Facebook took action to scrub Zynga off their platform. The stock proceeded to tank, the company’s founder and CEO quit, and the company got surpassed by red-hot competitor King, who is about to have an IPO of their own. A last-ditch foray into gambling was recently officially shelved.

Why We Picked Zynga:

Zynga is an anomaly in the portfolio, as they are actually up substantially on the year. But they are still viewed overall as a disappointment, as they are down over 60 percent since IPO. Gaming stocks in general are doing well this year, and if Zynga can continue riding social gaming’s resurgence there’s still a chance they could get it together.

Consumer Sector Pick: JC Penney (JCP)

Where to start? The case of JC Penney is going to be taught in business schools for years to come in as a cautionary tale of what not to do to turn a company around.

The short version is, in a radical attempt to revamp the company, activist investor Bill Ackman installed Ron Johnson from Apple Inc. ($AAPL) as the new CEO, and the company engaged in a massive reform. The overhaul, which attempted to modernize the storied department chain, failed miserably, and customers fled in droves. Ackman ended up selling his stake with his tail between his legs, finally admitting the whole thing was a huge mistake.

The company still hasn’t recovered. Formerly the second-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 at just a tick better than Turnaround Portfolio stablemate Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) , JC Penney is now far and away the index' worst returner, with a 57 percent loss in value this year.

Why We Picked JC Penney:

As is right now, it sits at its lowest price since the day after the October 1929 crash. If new CEO (actually, old CEO, re-installed) Myron Ullman can right the ship, JC Penney has the proven capability and resources to once again become profitable. The stock could see a nice upswing if they can win customers back that Ron Johnson lost.

Turnaround Portfolio Performance Check-In

Here’s how the Turnaround Portfolio looked after the bell on October 3:

Portfolio Return Since 9/25: 1.55 Percent

S&P Return Since 9/25: 0.06 Percent

So far, the Turnaround Portfolio is beating the S&P handily. Good work, us!* The excellent week of Quicksilver Resources Inc (KWK) and Atlantic Power Corp (AT) definitely carried it, while JC Penney continued getting rocked.

Check in with us next week as we continue profiling this group of losers that so far is beating the S&P.

*We make no assumptions about what may or may not happen to this portfolio going forward, nor do we advocate investing or not investing in these stocks. Investors are expected to do their own due diligence and consult professionals before sinking their money into anything.

Our interest is purely academic, and we made the Turnaround Portfoilo for our own amusement. We are easily amused.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Results for jcp
2 Sep 14 00:46:06
Hot Tweets for $JCP (PENNEY J C INC symbol JCP) on 09/02/2014 http://t.co/nVIu9aqftw
Jet Life PennyStock$
2 Sep 14 00:44:21
Dollar$OnPennies: $JCP Gallery View http://t.co/eYGkcTm6rs
Stock Signaling
2 Sep 14 00:31:04
Movers and Shakers: Recently Upgraded: $TSLA $BAC $JCP http://t.co/Vtx6dLy0Nw #spy #analytics #investors #finance #wallstreet #nasdaq #stock
Stock News Updates
2 Sep 14 00:28:21
$JCP: Athleisure Wear Fad A Rapidly Growing, But Crowded Space http://t.co/mjak3NNzWY http://t.co/6KPElFJRJe
2 Sep 14 00:22:39
J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCP) 10.80 $JCP Why Best Buy Looks Like a Bargain Despite Revenue Struggles at The St http://t.co/jzctaZ1E1a
2 Sep 14 00:20:53
JCP 10.80 Stock Charts $JCP J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE) Last Updated: 09/02/2014 02:20:55 JCP Stock Chart - 1 http://t.co/pHEttTO5nx
Games forever
2 Sep 14 00:18:03
$JCP J.C. PENNEY http://t.co/HMLNojnyGl
IH News Desk
2 Sep 14 00:13:09
$ABT Stock Message Board http://t.co/TqxHS9oQ2v Also See: $NRF $XLB $COP $JCP ~
Stock Forums
2 Sep 14 00:12:16
$ABT Message Board Posts http://t.co/awCyAyhML0 Also See: $JCP $FCX $TNA $EWG ~
Langan Stocks
2 Sep 14 00:12:13
$ABX Tick http://t.co/x8yR02hxzf Also See: $DRYS $JCP $SPWR $PBR ~
Stock Signaling
2 Sep 14 00:01:03
Watchlist: $BAC $TSLA $BWP $AVGO $TRP $JCP $ITMN $ICPT $IVZ $IG $SCHW $BPZ $BMO $ACHN $JPM http://t.co/Vtx6dLy0Nw #analyst #investors #nyse
1 Sep 14 23:08:44
$JCP A lesson in buying low in a high group http://t.co/NvpJ9EffXZ
George A. Medina
1 Sep 14 22:44:04
RT @TheStreet: J.C. Penney opened its first Brooklyn store on Friday, and that's only part of the $JCP revival: http://t.co/1UKb8oW7PN
Alysia Sarkisian
1 Sep 14 21:49:34
RT @TheStreet: J.C. Penney opened its first Brooklyn store on Friday, and that's only part of the $JCP revival: http://t.co/1UKb8oW7PN
John Michael
1 Sep 14 21:49:32
RT @TheStreet: J.C. Penney opened its first Brooklyn store on Friday, and that's only part of the $JCP revival: http://t.co/1UKb8oW7PN
You Need SEO
1 Sep 14 21:47:48
RT @TheStreet: J.C. Penney opened its first Brooklyn store on Friday, and that's only part of the $JCP revival: http://t.co/1UKb8oW7PN
Sterling Holmes
1 Sep 14 21:45:24
RT @TheStreet: J.C. Penney opened its first Brooklyn store on Friday, and that's only part of the $JCP revival: http://t.co/1UKb8oW7PN
1 Sep 14 21:45:19
RT @TheStreet: J.C. Penney opened its first Brooklyn store on Friday, and that's only part of the $JCP revival: http://t.co/1UKb8oW7PN
1 Sep 14 21:45:04
J.C. Penney opened its first Brooklyn store on Friday, and that's only part of the $JCP revival: http://t.co/1UKb8oW7PN
1 Sep 14 20:37:17
$IWEB closed up 100% today, on more than 290 MILLION shares traded! Huge News: http://t.co/ucQcnpafDY $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Market News
1 Sep 14 20:28:29
$JCP: [video] If you bought the dip ... http://t.co/CY5E87rrnP http://t.co/3HaAOmk504
Stock Signaling
1 Sep 14 19:31:03
25 Stocks To Watch: http://t.co/Vtx6dLy0Nw : $BAC $TSLA $BPZ $JCP #stockmarket #trading #markets #investing #trader #spy #nyse #wallstreet
Wall Street News
1 Sep 14 19:28:49
$JCP: JC Penney Company Inc. http://t.co/q6jq8o5HWC http://t.co/1Ed5Lg6ziq
1 Sep 14 19:20:42
For 9/2/14 I am watching $JCP $AMZN $MEET $EVRY $NMBL
Stock Signaling
1 Sep 14 18:31:04
Volume Leaders: $BAC $AVGO $TSLA $JCP $JPM $SPLK $OWW http://t.co/Vtx6dLy0Nw #nyse #stockpicks #watchlist #trading #wallstreet #daytrading
1 Sep 14 16:21:21
Gimme 2 big board plays for the last half of the year that you like ppl. $JCP and $IRE are two for me. Could see like 30-40% gains I think.
1 Sep 14 16:09:09
$IWEB closed up 100% today, on more than 290 MILLION shares traded! Huge News: http://t.co/ucQcnpafDY $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
1 Sep 14 15:01:20
Weekly Chart Gallery $GLUU $GM $JCP $SODA $SPX $NFLX $DDD $GDX $LNKD $LVS $MNKD $GPRO $TSLA $TWTR $AMZN http://t.co/C8AiBM5Fla
Shomik Ghosh
1 Sep 14 12:34:46
RT @JBoorman: FYI the names I already have are $MSFT $AA $FISV $MAR $DIS $ATVI $GILD $AAPL $DPS $HPQ $LMT $IPG $PCLN $TSLA $JCP $HD $BRK.B
Jon Boorman, CMT
1 Sep 14 12:21:27
FYI the names I already have are $MSFT $AA $FISV $MAR $DIS $ATVI $GILD $AAPL $DPS $HPQ $LMT $IPG $PCLN $TSLA $JCP $HD $BRK.B
Stock Updates
1 Sep 14 10:28:41
$JCP: Why JC Penney Has Gained 10% In The Last Five Days http://t.co/Ui6wR49C4W http://t.co/0N6oV1N4Nb
Rick  dan
1 Sep 14 09:38:17
Wisdom_Trade long on $JCP still go to $12
Brandon Rudolph
1 Sep 14 09:20:33
http://t.co/4iMeotEZUC $jcp
1 Sep 14 08:57:03
Dollar stores in battle to double down on the poor http://t.co/GBsG5obx9E $DG $WMT $DLTR $TGT $M $FDO $JCP
Stock Forums
1 Sep 14 08:53:07
$KNDI Day Low http://t.co/68L7D6dckQ Also See: $INVN $KRED $SWHC $JCP ~
Investors Hangout
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$KMP Shares http://t.co/ZRbK80ee70 Also See: $JCP $A $YRI.TO $XLU ~
Bulls vs Bears
1 Sep 14 08:28:37
$JCP: Why J.C. Penney (JCP) Stock Is Slipping Today http://t.co/p275UkUt4N http://t.co/AxUJCBnHJ4
Investors Hangout
1 Sep 14 08:27:08
$JCP Summary http://t.co/W2vIGYe786 Also See: $AKAM $DIS $HYG $AAPL ~
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$JCP Summary http://t.co/sPjNOHTUst Also See: $IBM $GLD $SGLB $ITMN ~
Investors Hangout
1 Sep 14 08:19:47
$JCP Short Sales http://t.co/ORJruD4WFz Also See: $UGAZ $KRED $NBR $DDM ~
Stock Forums
1 Sep 14 08:17:17
$JCP Current Price http://t.co/YROogLfd9A Also See: $KNDI $FXE $COP $AUO ~
1 Sep 14 08:10:05
RT @Inbox101: LONG: $impv $aapl $tmv $jcp $fuel $tza $bbry SHORT: $kss $fb $tza
Brian Mcdone
1 Sep 14 08:09:28
RT @Inbox101: LONG: $impv $aapl $tmv $jcp $fuel $tza $bbry SHORT: $kss $fb $tza
Money Jones
1 Sep 14 08:09:08
LONG: $impv $aapl $tmv $jcp $fuel $tza $bbry SHORT: $kss $fb $tza
Chasing Stars
1 Sep 14 08:03:18
$JCP Message Board Posts http://t.co/2TXZNNcbpV Also See: $COP $EXPE $VZ $XLY ~
Rosner Stocks
1 Sep 14 08:01:28
$JCP Prev Close http://t.co/kIJWNTmPw0 Also See: $EEM $XLB $C $EWZ ~
Stock Signaling
1 Sep 14 08:01:05
Movers and Shakers: Recently Upgraded: $ACHN $JCP $AEO $DG $WIN $JPM $TSLA $BAC $VZ http://t.co/Vtx6dLy0Nw #investing #dow #analyst #nasdaq
Investors Hangout
1 Sep 14 07:34:18
$ITMN Message Board Posts http://t.co/T40DEmI8rz Also See: $QLD $JCP $GDX $EBAY ~
Biz News Pioneer
1 Sep 14 07:28:49
$JCP: Why J.C. Penney's New Brooklyn Store Is Only Part of the Revival http://t.co/MQHZSkxg26 http://t.co/XtDAoAfWeg
Andre Smith
1 Sep 14 07:19:08
RT @SeekingAlpha: J.C. Penney: Saying Sayonara To The Bankruptcy Discount http://t.co/n4gUBfYKCg $JCP
  +Follow October 4, 2013 9:00AM



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