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Turnaround Stock Portfolio Week #2: Our Losers Are Winners! (So Far)

  +Follow October 4, 2013 9:00AM
Tickers Mentioned:

On Sept. 25 Equities began tracking ten stocks we dubbed “the Turnaround Stock Portfolio.” Unlike our other ongoing experiment the FUNY index, which is arbitrary and made up entirely of stocks with funny ticker symbols, the Turnaround Portfolio is based on quantified performance – poor performance, that is.

In 8 out of 10 cases, the stock had a negative return on the year. In the other two, the stock was either down over the last two years or was up marginally. And every stock in the portfolio was, at the start date, experiencing an ongoing crisis in leadership, worrying competition, or other major crisis.

But we didn’t pick stock destined for the toilet – in every case the stock had a potential to come back, and rebound from their past underperformance.

Component Spotlight

As we continue tracking the Turnaround Portfolio, we’ll be highlighting a few of its components and delve further into why we included this or that particular stock. This week, we’ll be looking at our Financial, Tech, and Consumer picks.  

Financial Sector Pick: Tower Group International Ltd. (TWGP)

Tower Group is a Bermuda-based property and casualty insurer who, at the time of the Turnaround Portfolio formation, was experiencing a fairly unusual crisis. Simply put, Tower Group was refusing to release their second quarter earnings report, having delayed it twice, which understandably spooked the heck out of investors. As a result, the stock lost over 60 percent of its value in six weeks.

Tower Group has only hinted that losses were far more numerous and severe than anticipated, and the company needed time to fully assess the extent of them. Estimates peg the unexpected losses at up to $110 million. Tower’s troubles date back to last summer, when the company was initially rocked by a rush of Hurricane Sandy claims.

Why We Picked Tower Group:

If an insurance company survives a natural disaster like Sandy, it can actually work out better for them in the long run, as it will cause future premiums for customers to rise. After all, the areas hit by Sandy have shown that they are in a hurricane prone-area.

That is, after all, a big “if,” and investors will know more when the company does finally release those second quarter earnings in “the week of October 7.”

Technology Sector Pick: Zynga Inc. (ZNGA)

Zynga was supposed to signal a new development in gaming. As Facebook Inc. (FB) built a social media empire Zynga was tight in the thick of it, making games exclusively for the burgeoning social media behemoth. The game Farmville, especially, was a robust hit for the company.

The company had their IPO on Dec. 2011 at $10 a share for a $7 billion evaluation. Things went downhill from there. Zynga was targeted for spamming Facebook user’s feeds with its game, and Facebook took action to scrub Zynga off their platform. The stock proceeded to tank, the company’s founder and CEO quit, and the company got surpassed by red-hot competitor King, who is about to have an IPO of their own. A last-ditch foray into gambling was recently officially shelved.

Why We Picked Zynga:

Zynga is an anomaly in the portfolio, as they are actually up substantially on the year. But they are still viewed overall as a disappointment, as they are down over 60 percent since IPO. Gaming stocks in general are doing well this year, and if Zynga can continue riding social gaming’s resurgence there’s still a chance they could get it together.

Consumer Sector Pick: JC Penney (JCP)

Where to start? The case of JC Penney is going to be taught in business schools for years to come in as a cautionary tale of what not to do to turn a company around.

The short version is, in a radical attempt to revamp the company, activist investor Bill Ackman installed Ron Johnson from Apple Inc. ($AAPL) as the new CEO, and the company engaged in a massive reform. The overhaul, which attempted to modernize the storied department chain, failed miserably, and customers fled in droves. Ackman ended up selling his stake with his tail between his legs, finally admitting the whole thing was a huge mistake.

The company still hasn’t recovered. Formerly the second-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 at just a tick better than Turnaround Portfolio stablemate Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) , JC Penney is now far and away the index' worst returner, with a 57 percent loss in value this year.

Why We Picked JC Penney:

As is right now, it sits at its lowest price since the day after the October 1929 crash. If new CEO (actually, old CEO, re-installed) Myron Ullman can right the ship, JC Penney has the proven capability and resources to once again become profitable. The stock could see a nice upswing if they can win customers back that Ron Johnson lost.

Turnaround Portfolio Performance Check-In

Here’s how the Turnaround Portfolio looked after the bell on October 3:

Portfolio Return Since 9/25: 1.55 Percent

S&P Return Since 9/25: 0.06 Percent

So far, the Turnaround Portfolio is beating the S&P handily. Good work, us!* The excellent week of Quicksilver Resources Inc (KWK) and Atlantic Power Corp (AT) definitely carried it, while JC Penney continued getting rocked.

Check in with us next week as we continue profiling this group of losers that so far is beating the S&P.

*We make no assumptions about what may or may not happen to this portfolio going forward, nor do we advocate investing or not investing in these stocks. Investors are expected to do their own due diligence and consult professionals before sinking their money into anything.

Our interest is purely academic, and we made the Turnaround Portfoilo for our own amusement. We are easily amused.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

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Results for jcp
Breaking News Now
24 Nov 15 15:12:13
$JCP: JC Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP) Stock Update on the Close: https://t.co/JX0PF8rDrR
24 Nov 15 13:42:05
JCP JC Penney Co, Inc. Quotes https://t.co/hZh6xc0pwI $JCP $HZNP $SH $VLO #JCP #investing #nasdaq
Investors Hangout
24 Nov 15 13:36:06
DD DuPont Co. Ex-Div Date https://t.co/e1awMu6wnI $DD $FXE $DZZ $JCP #DD #tradeideas #stockmarket
24 Nov 15 13:33:33
AMZN https://t.co/fAsmgI1Lyx, Inc. Financials https://t.co/Iwj0D9Gi69 $AMZN $NTEK $JCP $COP #AMZN #invest #tradeideas
Patrick Vermont
24 Nov 15 12:51:56
RT @jdmarkman: Brick and mortar stores want to fight Amazon with smartphone apps. Good luck with that $JCP $AMZN #mobiles https://t.co/Ytz…
24 Nov 15 12:48:50
$JCP late day push in to the overhead gap; probably not enough steam to do it today.
Jon Markman
24 Nov 15 12:45:57
Brick and mortar stores want to fight Amazon with smartphone apps. Good luck with that $JCP $AMZN #mobiles https://t.co/YtzyyA0ats
Jason Olive
24 Nov 15 12:35:48
RT @SeekingAlpha: J.C. Penney Has Nearly 23% Near Term Valuation Upside https://t.co/AONNGkzHD1 $JCP
China Invest
24 Nov 15 12:35:31
RT SeekingAlpha: J.C. Penney Has Nearly 23% Near Term Valuation Upside https://t.co/3ClANq8p67 $JCP
The Edge
24 Nov 15 12:34:12
RT @SeekingAlpha: J.C. Penney Has Nearly 23% Near Term Valuation Upside https://t.co/AONNGkzHD1 $JCP
Quantpost Service
24 Nov 15 12:33:31
$JCP News: "J.C. Penney Has Nearly 23% Near Term Valuation Upside $JCP" https://t.co/HYB8FkISVx Analyze: https://t.co/0PQmIyXTv2
Quantpost $JCP
24 Nov 15 12:33:31
$JCP News: "J.C. Penney Has Nearly 23% Near Term Valuation Upside $JCP" https://t.co/af9PGLsVve Analyze: https://t.co/BDyplJhM2f
Quick Stock Ideas
24 Nov 15 12:33:31
J.C. Penney Has Nearly 23% Near Term Valuation Upside https://t.co/a1xWei1AX7 $JCP
Seeking Alpha
24 Nov 15 12:33:30
J.C. Penney Has Nearly 23% Near Term Valuation Upside https://t.co/AONNGkzHD1 $JCP
24 Nov 15 12:30:17
RT @kthirum1: bosocial: designCodeAlpha: https://t.co/v1VoSXYE9H business markets $AAPL $WMT $JCP $GOOGL $AGN $AMZN $GE $PFE $M… https://t.…
24 Nov 15 12:29:42
bosocial: designCodeAlpha: https://t.co/v1VoSXYE9H business markets $AAPL $WMT $JCP $GOOGL $AGN $AMZN $GE $PFE $M… https://t.co/voW26TppNC
24 Nov 15 12:18:40
designCodeAlpha: https://t.co/ZSrssqrKsV business markets $AAPL $WMT $JCP $GOOGL $AGN $AMZN $GE $PFE $MSFT $FB Fo… https://t.co/pXsOmdBcSm
24 Nov 15 12:15:02
bosocial: https://t.co/v1VoSXYE9H business markets $AAPL $WMT $JCP $GOOGL $AGN $AMZN $GE $PFE $MSFT $FB FoxBusine… https://t.co/voW26TppNC
24 Nov 15 12:15:01
designCodeAlpha: https://t.co/v1VoSXYE9H business markets $AAPL $WMT $JCP $GOOGL $AGN $AMZN $GE $PFE $MSFT $FB Fo… https://t.co/tQ2QfGJ5dg
Big Data Tweet
24 Nov 15 12:10:18
RT @IMSResultsCount: Big #Retail Strikes Back: #OmniChannel And #BigData (Part 2 Of 2) $AMZN $AZO $BBY $COST $DKS $HD $JCP $LULU $M https:/…
24 Nov 15 12:09:04
https://t.co/ZSrssqrKsV business markets $AAPL $WMT $JCP $GOOGL $AGN $AMZN $GE $PFE $MSFT $FB FoxBusiness CNBC … https://t.co/pXsOmdBcSm
IMS Results Count
24 Nov 15 12:01:36
Big #Retail Strikes Back: #OmniChannel And #BigData (Part 2 Of 2) $AMZN $AZO $BBY $COST $DKS $HD $JCP $LULU $M https://t.co/d0x55mdFiW
24 Nov 15 11:41:48
$JCP contemplating the overhead earnings gap from couple weeks ago.
Al Sabogal
24 Nov 15 10:49:19
$JCP still trading in [wide] well defined range...lots of potential https://t.co/LY8qv6Iu6X
24 Nov 15 10:15:49
$FL HoD; $JCP & $TGR pushing into HoD territory....we'll see.
24 Nov 15 10:15:46
Are Volkswagen, Spirit And Whole Foods Value Stocks Or Value Traps? https://t.co/7XMkUOof6f … $CL $JCP $PG $SAVE $SHLD $VLKAF $VLKAY $WFM
24 Nov 15 09:32:16
I am long $AUY $JCP $FSLR $TSN
24 Nov 15 09:22:01
$JCP gave us the entry a few of us discussed / recommend taking profits near resistance https://t.co/HFf5PoJI3G
Sweet Platform
24 Nov 15 09:05:23
JCP Top news - Nov 24th, 2015 $JCP https://t.co/qUrmIkweRj
China Invest
24 Nov 15 08:58:55
RT SeekingAlpha: Are Volkswagen, Spirit And Whole Foods Value Stocks Or Value Traps? https://t.co/lPVhc2Ff7y $CL $JCP $PG $SAVE $SHLD $VLK…
Quantpost $JCP
24 Nov 15 08:55:37
$JCP News: "Are Volkswagen, Spirit And Whole Foods Value Stocks Or Value Traps?…" https://t.co/7rjqCTh7Xr Analyze: https://t.co/qK4gdobyNE
Quantpost Service
24 Nov 15 08:55:37
$JCP $SHLD $WFM News: "Are Volkswagen, Spirit And Whole Foods Value Stocks Or…" https://t.co/0ZzzGXdIM6 Analyze: https://t.co/SswBCdKDbg
Quick Stock Ideas
24 Nov 15 08:55:37
Are Volkswagen, Spirit And Whole Foods Value Stocks Or Value Traps? https://t.co/md5fcUxLCx $CL $JCP $PG $SAVE $SHLD $VLKAF $VLKAY $WFM
Seeking Alpha
24 Nov 15 08:55:36
Are Volkswagen, Spirit And Whole Foods Value Stocks Or Value Traps? https://t.co/jAWXEflgrn $CL $JCP $PG $SAVE $SHLD $VLKAF $VLKAY $WFM
24 Nov 15 08:40:29
$JCP shorts have dropped below 30% this hasn't happened in a long time..
24 Nov 15 08:25:31
RT @OpenOutcrier: $JCP Jan 5 Put Buyers +6300 for $0.05
Open Outcrier
24 Nov 15 08:20:20
$JCP Jan 5 Put Buyers +6300 for $0.05
24 Nov 15 08:09:55
Volume Alert - JCP 8.11 J.C. Penney Company Inc $JCP Hit a high today of 8.25 Closing the day 10:30 at 8.11 un https://t.co/r1Pw90vxA1
24 Nov 15 07:42:29
J C Penney Company Stock Rating Reaffirmed by Buckingham Research $JCP https://t.co/BfuVyHp94Z
24 Nov 15 07:19:42
RT @jgobble: $JCP News: 5 of the Most Ridiculous Things People Have Tried to Return During the Holidays https://t.co/uUHe4dJvJF
Jann Gobble
24 Nov 15 07:17:20
$JCP News: 5 of the Most Ridiculous Things People Have Tried to Return During the Holidays https://t.co/uUHe4dJvJF
Jann Gobble
24 Nov 15 07:17:20
$JCP News: J C Penney Company Trading 4.1% Higher (JCP) https://t.co/KXqaEbvhEl
Jann Gobble
24 Nov 15 07:17:19
$JCP News: Ready to shop? Here’s what you should know https://t.co/rVoSzQeTit
Stock Monster
24 Nov 15 07:16:52
This Service Made 20,000% Gains In the Last Month! Subscribe Here https://t.co/Op2NHXvN1s .. $JCP $AQUM $WSGI
Jann Gobble
24 Nov 15 07:13:03
I don't know where they get their facts! @jcpenney $JCP does NOT offer said return policy! @TIME should know better! https://t.co/Ya0igXnr3H
Drew Powers
24 Nov 15 06:46:29
short add $JCP 8.20 from what I took off yesterday at 8.10
24 Nov 15 06:45:41
$JCP high open interest range is 7.50 to 8.00 for option expiration 11/27/2015. https://t.co/RP5KVEZL60 https://t.co/tRYIrk4Njs
24 Nov 15 06:40:52
$JCP is well bid two days in a row.
24 Nov 15 06:37:53
$JCP $TGT going green. Both after earnings plays.
24 Nov 15 06:30:28
$JCP Max Pain = 8.00. Maturity = 11/27/2015. Previous close = 8.03. https://t.co/oRttxCF82H
  +Follow October 4, 2013 9:00AM



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