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I have a sister who is two years older than me. We fought from time to time growing up. I distinctly remember this one time when I was 11 and our dad forced us to make up by putting our arms around each other’s shoulders. I don’t remember what the…
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“If this were a marriage, the lawyers would be circling.” The Economist, My Big Fat Greek Divorce, 6/20/2015 Greece is again all the buzz in the media and on the commentary circuit. If you’re like me, you are suffering terminal Greece fatigue. You just want Greece and its creditors to…
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I don’t know anything about Greece. I actually make it a point not to. What I’ve found over the course of my career is that the closer people get to an issue, the worse their predictive power is. The forest-for-the-trees phenomenon. Like all the economists who do nothing but watch…
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The Fed has delayed a rate hike yet again. It seems convinced the economy isn’t ready to survive on higher short-term rates. So we continue to see zero rates to stimulate more economic activity. But today the market is proving just how limited the Fed’s influence really is! I’ve been warning…
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The Greek bailout is in the news and if you want to make a bet, you can do so by buying or selling (shorting) shares in National Bank of Greece S.A. ($NBG). Shares are liquid, and reflect what is happening in the bailout. If you look at this chart from…
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Knowing that a default is now inevitable, Greek citizens made a decision to stop paying taxes, and the result was inevitable: Greek Government Suffers Collapse in Revenue in May.  The Greek government suffered a collapse in revenue in May after companies and individuals delayed filing tax returns amid fears that emergency…
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Recent data from the Bank of Greece for March shows net Target2 liability for Greece increased by another €5.27 billion in March to €96.427 billion.  What does Target2 represent? Target 2 is an indicator of capital flight from Greece.  Data for the chart is from Eurocrisis Monitor, with my update reflecting the latest…
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As Friday morning proved, when Bloomberg terminals go down, the trading world stops dead in its tracks. In this case, it was an internal "network issue" according to the company, which is settling news to markets overall because a hack for these 300,000 work stations used mainly by professionals would…
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In Code Red I wrote a great deal about trade imbalances among the various European countries, which were at the heart of the European sovereign debt problem. As the peripheral countries have tried to rebalance their trade deficits with Northern Europe and especially with Germany, they have seen their relative…
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The Greek drama continues to unfold. Greece has just made a €450 million payment to the International Monetary Fund, and although Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has made assurances that Greece will honor all obligations to its creditors, fear continues to mount as we reach yet another “critical moment” (one…
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European measures of business sentiment from and consumer confidence from the European Commission are up in the last week. European QE is ongoing, and we note that European stocks are reacting positively to European sentiment. In spite of the Greek issue, the stocks on the continent are doing nicely. Fed…
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Some things never change. Here is Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founding intellectuals of the Austrian school of economics, writing in January 1914, lambasting politicians for their complicity in the corruption of monetary policy: We have seen innumerable variations of the vexing game of trying to generate political contentment…
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