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Trade What You See, Not What You Hope

By  +Follow September 16, 2013 8:38AM
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In our latest interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discussed some possible near-term scenarios for this shaky market. With so many uncertainties looming, traders and investors face a number of potential outcomes.

EQ: Stocks are up about 3 percent so far in September after experiencing a rough August. Is this an encouraging sign for the market to go higher from here?

Turner: It’s important right now to see what the S&P 500 does because we’re at a point where several key  events could take place depending on the Fed’s stance this coming week. Ifwe look at a daily chart of the S&P 500, it is nearing a resistance point from the May highs. Should it start rolling over here and head back below 1625, it could form a head-and-shoulders top-reversal pattern, which usually has a negative outcome.

Alternatively, the S&P 500 could continue moving higher from here back to the 1709 all-time high. If it falls at that point, and moves to that 1625 or 1630 support line, then it could form a double top, which also usually has a negative outcome.

More optimistically, it could move sideways between 1630 and 1709 for a while until we move into the typical three best months of the year, which are November, December, and January. The best case scenario—and I’m sure everyone would like to see this—is for it to move above 1709 and continue into an uptrend. Right now, it’s in an iffy position and trading on low volume. So I think it’s wise for traders and investors to trade what they see, and not what they think is going to happen.

EQ: The Federal Reserve will be watched very closely the coming days as the long-expected taper of its bond-purchasing program could be set to begin as early as next week. What is your feeling on the market with this possibly news looming?

Turner: Most of the shock and awe over the Fed tapering its bond purchases has been priced into the S&P 500 right now. It has generally been assumed that the Fed would taper its bond buying by $10 billion a month in the coming months. Right now, it seems that the market has pretty much factored that in, but as I said earlier, the market will still react to this coming week’s announcement. If you look at long-term bond prices through the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond ($TLT) or other interest rate-sensitive vehicles, they’re all pausing here. Of course, they could go lower should the announcement next week be something that we don’t expect.

EQ: Apple’s new iPhone announcement was a major dud for investors, triggering a heavy selloff. Would you consider this a buying opportunity or is it too uncertain to touch right now?

Turner: I tend to stay away from stocks that are in the media spotlight. While I believe Apple (AAPL) is a fantastic company, my focus is on high-quality companies that trade below the media radar, with good fundamentals and good setups.

Were I to consider Apple here, I wouldn’t buy it at this exact point. I would need proof that it can hold above its 200-day moving average. To me, it appears to be in a very precarious zone, and it’s probably a good buy for investors like Warren Buffett, who buy and go to sleep for several years. For those people who are at all nervous about holding overnight positions, however, they may be advised to move into something more conservative.

EQ: What sectors are you watching right now?

Turner: The industry group that I’m watching right now is natural gas and the United States Natural Gas (UNG) . It’s risen off its August lows and has made a nice run up. Right now, it’s hesitating here with the lows at $18.47. As long as it can stay above that price level, I will be interested in it. If the U.S. does go on to have a manufacturing renaissance, as is predicted, natural gas could benefit nicely.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.


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Results for aapl
Nidal Rahman
23 Nov 14 15:02:08
RT @No_Brainer_Pick: Dissent to $AAPL settlement $GTATQ GTAT https://t.co/On2GLhQoZe
iHangout
23 Nov 14 15:01:35
DennyT: Estrella's Sizzling Hot Stock Plays: AAPL Stock 116.47 Apple Inc $AAPL Hit a 52 week http://t.co/2YFkY79XLJ
iHangout
23 Nov 14 15:01:04
DennyT: Estrella's Sizzling Hot Stock Plays: AAPL Stock 116.47 Apple Inc $AAPL Hit a 52 week http://t.co/KhF4Z9FeCa
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23 Nov 14 14:57:52
Got apps? The best apps on the internetS!!! http://t.co/3kJpRqchjE $aapl #ipad #iphone
Investors Hangout
23 Nov 14 14:54:35
DennyT: AAPL Stock 116.47 Apple Inc $AAPL Hit a 52 week http://t.co/d2XVjDVICg
Investors Hangout
23 Nov 14 14:54:34
DennyT: AAPL Stock 116.47 Apple Inc $AAPL Hit a 52 week http://t.co/Ov7n8dVzXf
BEAR MARKET
23 Nov 14 14:53:30
RT @Crash_1929: U.K. PM warns of looming global crash: http://t.co/ZOX6cLtvyV $AAPL $GOOG $MSFT #UK $VIX $SPX #FTSE #SMI #OMX #IBEX #CAC …
MacHash
23 Nov 14 14:52:34
GarageBand goes (RED) with time-limited guitar, bass and drum loops IAP, all… http://t.co/hqfcs9ZhSR #9to5Mac $AAPL http://t.co/AhURYNnV8c
913
23 Nov 14 14:50:39
David Cameron has issued a stark message that “red warning lightsare flashing on the dashboard of the global economy. $spy $qqq $baba $AAPL
Yusuf Kuzu
23 Nov 14 14:47:28
RT @StockTwits: Ronald Wayne is a co-founder of Apple. He once had a 10% stake. He sold it for $800. http://t.co/7UVky5AGom $AAPL http://t.…
Action Jackson
23 Nov 14 14:47:07
RT @muathe: [VIDEO] Weekend Market Analysis 11/22/14 $PBR $HTZ $KMI $AAPL $T $MSFT $ES_F $F $VALE $KMP $SPY $HAL $BAC $CSCO $PFE http://t.c…
DennyT
23 Nov 14 14:44:14
AAPL Stock 116.47 Apple Inc $AAPL Hit a 52 week high of 117.57 Closing the day 11/21/14 at 116.47 +0.16 +0.14% http://t.co/XZG82I3ElB
Trent Watson
23 Nov 14 14:43:42
Alibaba Among 5 Top Stocks With Top Profit Margins http://t.co/QkLLLpGHwY #IBDNews via @IBDinvestors $V $AAPL $BABA $FB $CELG $MA $REGN
Mike
23 Nov 14 14:42:40
$TWTR $FB $TSLA $NFLX $YELP $YHOO $AAPL volume will be light this week, looking for hedge fund managers to play some year end games
Benjamins
23 Nov 14 14:41:52
Dissent to $AAPL settlement $GTATQ GTAT https://t.co/On2GLhQoZe
Mark Trader
23 Nov 14 14:41:41
http://t.co/FOdvsRfk32 has 6 pro traders in their chat room. real-time trade alerts, and offer a 14-day trial. $BAC $AAPL $CSCO $BABA $F
Vincent Giannattasio
23 Nov 14 14:41:17
$AAPL When it does pull back, looking at 108.40 as first area of support. http://t.co/Zy2oIfLhEY... http://t.co/9guHYVMMAy
Mohamud
23 Nov 14 14:40:28
$AAPL expect price to push this week 113.26 area before it heads 120 http://t.co/ACFV4rmimn how u can take advantage http://t.co/ACFV4rmimn
Mohamud
23 Nov 14 14:39:52
$AAPL - $116.60 remained a solid resistance last week, but will it hold - https://t.co/39w1wnnsAZ
TV_Trading Ideas
23 Nov 14 14:39:33
$116.60 remained a solid resistance last week, but will it hold $AAPL http://t.co/wRVlDoAuqD
Sybille Vega
23 Nov 14 14:38:01
Alibaba Among 5 Top Stocks With Top Profit Margins http://t.co/DeKBc2OdLo #IBDNews via @IBDinvestors $V $AAPL $BABA $FB $CELG $MA $REGN
Corey Thompson
23 Nov 14 14:31:41
RT @MC_ManagementGr: Continue to hold $WFC and still maintain a $55 price target by years end. $AAPL has exceed our $108 target- great job …
Maleah
23 Nov 14 14:27:03
http://t.co/Hce0Z2DnDs <-- Inspiring trading interview with a top SuperTrades student! $AAPL $FB $GILD $GPRO
MC Management
23 Nov 14 14:26:52
Continue to hold $WFC and still maintain a $55 price target by years end. $AAPL has exceed our $108 target- great job to Tim Cook.
Aslammalik8@gmail.co
23 Nov 14 14:22:52
Got apps? The best apps on the internetS!!! http://t.co/65iWzXhlmq $aapl #ipad #iphone
WallStreetStar
23 Nov 14 14:16:53
Next week I will continue to hold my short $QQQ and $AAPL positions. I like $USO $VXX and $TWTR
Tom Wrigley
23 Nov 14 14:15:18
$AAPL 116.47 Gene Munster s/w @CoryTV on demand, margins, and Dec Qtr Video ➜ http://t.co/k7CQYrsvdn
ⓢ
23 Nov 14 14:12:17
$AAPL http://t.co/n5K8qEYAK8
Stockaholics
23 Nov 14 14:08:30
578% Gains On Penny Stocks in one month! Plus a New Pick Is Coming: http://t.co/2W3yKD2d5Q $AAPL $BAC $CBIS
Nelson Molina
23 Nov 14 14:06:27
$AAPL $BA $BABA $DKS $FB $FSLR $AMZN Puts this monster on your watch list for the end of the year. See video http://t.co/TthPDvroUh"
Johnny Trades
23 Nov 14 14:03:16
@WallStJesus Following that trade plus $aapl buy write , Kors calls. And $Oak
Mohawk Investor
23 Nov 14 14:02:56
@MM_Trades it's gonna be the biggest ever for $AAPL but you can anticipate sell the news that day if they don't announce another buy back
Trader Quebec
23 Nov 14 14:00:29
RT @ACInvestorBlog: $RUBI has very good upside potential (Apple deal). Above 15.41 can go parabolic into 23 again $AAPL http://t.co/bG3Mn8c…
JAIRO SANTELLAN
23 Nov 14 14:00:18
daily charts on buy set up http://t.co/wF6GigzR0Q $PBI $DE $TEL $CMI $IM $cat $spy $qqq $AAPL http://t.co/20RGalQyrs
Luis Jairo Santellan
23 Nov 14 14:00:10
daily charts on buy set up http://t.co/mrRGLGmezU $PBI $DE $TEL $CMI $IM $cat $spy $qqq $AAPL http://t.co/sNmCzV8sg0
Chayton Falke
23 Nov 14 14:00:01
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Stockaholics
23 Nov 14 13:58:16
578% Gains On Penny Stocks in one month! Plus a New Pick Is Coming: http://t.co/2W3yKD2d5Q $IBM $GOOG $AAPL
salonigupta
23 Nov 14 13:50:52
RT @WallStJesus: 🍎 $AAPL RECENT ANALYST RATINGS http://t.co/C7hUZMR0zh
Ravi Romo
23 Nov 14 13:46:46
Alibaba Among 5 Top Stocks With Top Profit Margins http://t.co/PMnvL53ZDa $V $AAPL $BABA $FB $CELG $MA $REGN
∞E∞⚡
23 Nov 14 13:46:27
RT @GoogleFacts: There was a 3rd Apple founder, Ronald Wayne, who sold his 10% stake for $800 in 1976. Today his share would've been worth …
Stockaholics
23 Nov 14 13:45:36
578% Gains On Penny Stocks in one month! Plus a New Pick Is Coming: http://t.co/2W3yKD2d5Q $DO $ALL $AAPL
$PKGM$ alerted 2day
23 Nov 14 13:37:50
ClayTrader: * * $AAPL Video Chart 11-21-14 * * http://t.co/zry7HJQPQr
$PKGM$ alerted 2day
23 Nov 14 13:37:40
ClayTrader: * * $AAPL Video Chart 11-21-14 * * http://t.co/wRNU9rgP2l
Exposethebest
23 Nov 14 13:36:38
ClayTrader: * * $AAPL Video Chart 11-21-14 * * http://t.co/rgoK0i6YLW
Fake CNBC
23 Nov 14 13:33:24
@GooseTrader Yes, short $AAPL and the $QQQ.
HotStockAlert $PKGM$
23 Nov 14 13:32:40
ClayTrader: * * $AAPL Video Chart 11-21-14 * * http://t.co/gR4klL9md3
HotStockAlert $PKGM$
23 Nov 14 13:32:14
ClayTrader: * * $AAPL Video Chart 11-21-14 * * http://t.co/pKcnDmS1EF
Chayton Falke
23 Nov 14 13:30:01
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Market Man
23 Nov 14 13:26:27
Looking to add some Feb '15 $125 calls on any dip. #Earnings on Jan 26th will be huge! $AAPL http://t.co/VidzS7ogDr
				
				
By  +Follow September 16, 2013 8:38AM
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