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Trade What You See, Not What You Hope

By  +Follow September 16, 2013 8:38AM
Tickers Mentioned:

In our latest interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discussed some possible near-term scenarios for this shaky market. With so many uncertainties looming, traders and investors face a number of potential outcomes.

EQ: Stocks are up about 3 percent so far in September after experiencing a rough August. Is this an encouraging sign for the market to go higher from here?

Turner: It’s important right now to see what the S&P 500 does because we’re at a point where several key  events could take place depending on the Fed’s stance this coming week. Ifwe look at a daily chart of the S&P 500, it is nearing a resistance point from the May highs. Should it start rolling over here and head back below 1625, it could form a head-and-shoulders top-reversal pattern, which usually has a negative outcome.

Alternatively, the S&P 500 could continue moving higher from here back to the 1709 all-time high. If it falls at that point, and moves to that 1625 or 1630 support line, then it could form a double top, which also usually has a negative outcome.

More optimistically, it could move sideways between 1630 and 1709 for a while until we move into the typical three best months of the year, which are November, December, and January. The best case scenario—and I’m sure everyone would like to see this—is for it to move above 1709 and continue into an uptrend. Right now, it’s in an iffy position and trading on low volume. So I think it’s wise for traders and investors to trade what they see, and not what they think is going to happen.

EQ: The Federal Reserve will be watched very closely the coming days as the long-expected taper of its bond-purchasing program could be set to begin as early as next week. What is your feeling on the market with this possibly news looming?

Turner: Most of the shock and awe over the Fed tapering its bond purchases has been priced into the S&P 500 right now. It has generally been assumed that the Fed would taper its bond buying by $10 billion a month in the coming months. Right now, it seems that the market has pretty much factored that in, but as I said earlier, the market will still react to this coming week’s announcement. If you look at long-term bond prices through the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond ($TLT) or other interest rate-sensitive vehicles, they’re all pausing here. Of course, they could go lower should the announcement next week be something that we don’t expect.

EQ: Apple’s new iPhone announcement was a major dud for investors, triggering a heavy selloff. Would you consider this a buying opportunity or is it too uncertain to touch right now?

Turner: I tend to stay away from stocks that are in the media spotlight. While I believe Apple (AAPL) is a fantastic company, my focus is on high-quality companies that trade below the media radar, with good fundamentals and good setups.

Were I to consider Apple here, I wouldn’t buy it at this exact point. I would need proof that it can hold above its 200-day moving average. To me, it appears to be in a very precarious zone, and it’s probably a good buy for investors like Warren Buffett, who buy and go to sleep for several years. For those people who are at all nervous about holding overnight positions, however, they may be advised to move into something more conservative.

EQ: What sectors are you watching right now?

Turner: The industry group that I’m watching right now is natural gas and the United States Natural Gas (UNG) . It’s risen off its August lows and has made a nice run up. Right now, it’s hesitating here with the lows at $18.47. As long as it can stay above that price level, I will be interested in it. If the U.S. does go on to have a manufacturing renaissance, as is predicted, natural gas could benefit nicely.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Results for aapl
22 Oct 14 07:32:37
Trade -- $AAPL : Flip from Short to Long at 103.13, Date = 10/22/2014, Time = 10:32:33:0
Tom Quirke
22 Oct 14 07:32:10
Breaking News: Multiple shootings reported at Canadian Parliament @FoxNews @CNBC $NFLX $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $FB $GOOGL @jimcramer
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22 Oct 14 07:32:03
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22 Oct 14 07:31:45
APPLE - Fibonacci Technicals Levels - Intraday Update - $AAPL #aapl http://t.co/W0dlqOUHUv
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22 Oct 14 07:31:36
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22 Oct 14 07:31:26
RT @NPetallides: Dow up 18.; $TGT http://t.co/cqijorQXXC spend $50=free shipping til12/20. $YHOO up 6% . $AAPL flirts w/highs. $FDX preps f…
22 Oct 14 07:31:09
short away $SPY $SPX however with $oil prices down its good for economy but hedge with short $BTU, $CLF $AAPL
Jeff Focker
22 Oct 14 07:30:55
$AAPL $BABA $FB want higher
Jeffrey Blake
22 Oct 14 07:30:50
$AAPL Apple Inc. surprises with massive $17 billion Q4 stock buyback http://t.co/PtRjhsX4EZ
22 Oct 14 07:30:48
everyone shud have a short started in $CBRL $GMCR $AAPL $GPRO $COST $HD $IRBT $BRCM by now
Charles Z
22 Oct 14 07:30:45
Carl Icahn shorts high yield; long $AAPL is no brainer; still has $HLF; long market/energy, may break can't say when. http://t.co/siW1mDwxrq
Steve Mahoney
22 Oct 14 07:30:30
@carlquintanilla @CNBC We are Confident I Believe $aapl Religious Conversion by @jonfortt Prodigal Son Returns....
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22 Oct 14 07:30:10
Chayton Falke
22 Oct 14 07:30:10
Trade $AAPL #FREE Nightly Updates are #posted here on #Twitter, or you can visit the #Trade #AAPL FREE #website here http://t.co/LMTe7xxRt1
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22 Oct 14 07:30:06
Cisco: Not The Best Idea In Big Cap Tech http://t.co/B9lRjbqoDw $AAPL $MSFT $CSCO
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22 Oct 14 07:30:06
Is Apple Finally A Flight To Safety Stock? http://t.co/t834tj3ank $AAPL
22 Oct 14 07:30:01
$AAPL 20141121 Block Trade: 142 trade. ~$1.5 MM notional value.
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22 Oct 14 07:29:54
$NFLX sold half 370-calls at $8.55 from $5.80 for 47% $SPY $AAPL
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22 Oct 14 07:29:28
Consistent Momentum
22 Oct 14 07:29:28
Long $BABA $AAPL $NFLX. "Had fun short" in $BIIB $LL $DDD this morning
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$AAPL 20141121 Block Trade: 201 trade. ~$2.1 MM notional value.
22 Oct 14 07:28:52
$AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc (AGIO) 73.32 +0.42 (+0.58%) $MHYS $AAPL $GDX http://t.co/ygtXKYUIxc
Charles  Schultz
22 Oct 14 07:28:39
RT @philiped: $aapl and $gtat have cut a deal to wind down Mesa plant. GT will pay its debt to Apple by selling 2,039 furnaces
Charles  Schultz
22 Oct 14 07:28:23
RT @MelanieLisa: GT Advanced, Apple sign deal for "amicable" split. $GTAT $AAPL (Pic: Stephen Lam) http://t.co/h0CCS8R7BL http://t.co/riCT8…
Quantitative Trading
22 Oct 14 07:27:58
$AAPL - finally broke above the news spike of 103.08 from the product announcement.
22 Oct 14 07:27:37
$DRIV remember that UOA activity...its moving now...another $AAPL pay play
Michael Levy
22 Oct 14 07:27:26
RT @DrDave01: iPhone 6 Long-Term Rvw: $AAPL'S Lack Of Vision Is iPhone's Failure-a skeptic's perspective. http://t.co/3vWuSOU0XI via @forbes
Nick Vitani
22 Oct 14 07:27:14
I made 2 purchases at Walgreens yesterday just to try out #ApplePay. Loved the way it works. $WAG $AAPL
Nicole Petallides
22 Oct 14 07:27:02
Dow up 18.; $TGT http://t.co/cqijorQXXC spend $50=free shipping til12/20. $YHOO up 6% . $AAPL flirts w/highs. $FDX preps for record season.
George Bonano
22 Oct 14 07:26:09
RT @JohnnyBleiss: China Unicom Offers On-The-Spot Pocket Enlargement For $AAPL's iPhone 6 Plus http://t.co/N99mzM4Tk4 http://t.co/bMg07cJpFW
22 Oct 14 07:26:07
RT @stt2318: Offering a yearly price for my swingtrade service. Heavily discounted. email info@traderstoolbox.net to take advantage $spy $i…
22 Oct 14 07:25:08
Offering a yearly price for my swingtrade service. Heavily discounted. email info@traderstoolbox.net to take advantage $spy $iwm $aapl $fb
22 Oct 14 07:24:59
Apple will become mad cash generator in 2015 ;) $AAPL
Virtual Next
22 Oct 14 07:24:14
RT @TheStreet: Who actually uses Apple's Passbook? #iDont. http://t.co/DdGX0xu3k4 $AAPL
Virginia S. Saunders
22 Oct 14 07:23:33
RT @IBDinvestors: In just 9 years, the iPod business has gone from 50% of Apple's revenue to less than 1% http://t.co/4h2LG8tjcd $AAPL
22 Oct 14 07:23:02
$AAPL 20141121 Block Trade: 1535 trade. ~$15.8 MM notional value.
Joseph Hsieh
22 Oct 14 07:22:30
RT @MarketWatch: Need to know: You don't need to be a brainiac to figure out $aapl is a buy, says Carl Icahn. http://t.co/z6XayLxy4b http:/…
22 Oct 14 07:22:15
Another 10% run for $AAPL EoY due to Apple $32bb buybacks through F15Q1
Alma Mendoza
22 Oct 14 07:21:23
RT @carlquintanilla: Apple is 50 cents from an all-time high. $AAPL @CNBC
Jim Treacy
22 Oct 14 07:21:22
Letter Tim Cook Sent $AAPL Employees After Company Crushed Q4 Earnings http://t.co/fEju0KqyPt via @bi_contributors REAL LEADER #leadership
Financial Iceberg
22 Oct 14 07:21:19
Apple and GT have agreed to an 'amicable parting of the ways' $AAPL #aapl http://t.co/3VLA2BAVgE
Marty Teevan
22 Oct 14 07:20:58
RT @MelanieLisa: GT Advanced, Apple sign deal for "amicable" split. $GTAT $AAPL (Pic: Stephen Lam) http://t.co/h0CCS8R7BL http://t.co/riCT8…
22 Oct 14 07:20:58
Ha "@landonashworth: Why aren't iPhone chargers called apple juice?" $AAPL
Bat Manuel TER
22 Oct 14 07:20:38
RT @DougKass: Kara Swisher (ReCode): "You know Apple is run by men when they call it an iPhone 6 Plus and it's only 5.5 inches." $AAPL
∫ りょう dx =♬
22 Oct 14 07:20:05
RT @MarketWatch: Need to know: You don't need to be a brainiac to figure out $aapl is a buy, says Carl Icahn. http://t.co/z6XayLxy4b http:/…
22 Oct 14 07:19:53
$AAPL $103 support holding well
22 Oct 14 07:19:39
Trade -- $AAPL : Enter Short at 103.04, Date = 10/22/2014, Time = 10:19:34:0
22 Oct 14 07:18:45
$AAPL +1.5% CoD IMO
Investor Wand
22 Oct 14 07:18:25
New recommendation from Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets for $AAPL is BUY.Price target is $115:http://t.co/BFr6ojxpKW
22 Oct 14 07:17:59
too bad, $AAPL didnt reach $103.50 so i am still holding onto SHORT $AAPL....YIPPEE!!! $SPX $SPY. Don't be shy, short $SPY !!!!!
By  +Follow September 16, 2013 8:38AM



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