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Trade What You See, Not What You Hope

By  +Follow September 16, 2013 8:38AM
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In our latest interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discussed some possible near-term scenarios for this shaky market. With so many uncertainties looming, traders and investors face a number of potential outcomes.

EQ: Stocks are up about 3 percent so far in September after experiencing a rough August. Is this an encouraging sign for the market to go higher from here?

Turner: It’s important right now to see what the S&P 500 does because we’re at a point where several key  events could take place depending on the Fed’s stance this coming week. Ifwe look at a daily chart of the S&P 500, it is nearing a resistance point from the May highs. Should it start rolling over here and head back below 1625, it could form a head-and-shoulders top-reversal pattern, which usually has a negative outcome.

Alternatively, the S&P 500 could continue moving higher from here back to the 1709 all-time high. If it falls at that point, and moves to that 1625 or 1630 support line, then it could form a double top, which also usually has a negative outcome.

More optimistically, it could move sideways between 1630 and 1709 for a while until we move into the typical three best months of the year, which are November, December, and January. The best case scenario—and I’m sure everyone would like to see this—is for it to move above 1709 and continue into an uptrend. Right now, it’s in an iffy position and trading on low volume. So I think it’s wise for traders and investors to trade what they see, and not what they think is going to happen.

EQ: The Federal Reserve will be watched very closely the coming days as the long-expected taper of its bond-purchasing program could be set to begin as early as next week. What is your feeling on the market with this possibly news looming?

Turner: Most of the shock and awe over the Fed tapering its bond purchases has been priced into the S&P 500 right now. It has generally been assumed that the Fed would taper its bond buying by $10 billion a month in the coming months. Right now, it seems that the market has pretty much factored that in, but as I said earlier, the market will still react to this coming week’s announcement. If you look at long-term bond prices through the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond ($TLT) or other interest rate-sensitive vehicles, they’re all pausing here. Of course, they could go lower should the announcement next week be something that we don’t expect.

EQ: Apple’s new iPhone announcement was a major dud for investors, triggering a heavy selloff. Would you consider this a buying opportunity or is it too uncertain to touch right now?

Turner: I tend to stay away from stocks that are in the media spotlight. While I believe Apple (AAPL) is a fantastic company, my focus is on high-quality companies that trade below the media radar, with good fundamentals and good setups.

Were I to consider Apple here, I wouldn’t buy it at this exact point. I would need proof that it can hold above its 200-day moving average. To me, it appears to be in a very precarious zone, and it’s probably a good buy for investors like Warren Buffett, who buy and go to sleep for several years. For those people who are at all nervous about holding overnight positions, however, they may be advised to move into something more conservative.

EQ: What sectors are you watching right now?

Turner: The industry group that I’m watching right now is natural gas and the United States Natural Gas (UNG) . It’s risen off its August lows and has made a nice run up. Right now, it’s hesitating here with the lows at $18.47. As long as it can stay above that price level, I will be interested in it. If the U.S. does go on to have a manufacturing renaissance, as is predicted, natural gas could benefit nicely.

Results for aapl
sanjay singh
17 Apr 14 08:03:13
Panorama http://t.co/LmWdS2rAq8 #Photo & Video #iphone5 #ipad $aapl
Trade Flow Fund
17 Apr 14 08:02:33
$LQMT buy before 20 cents turns into 50 cents and then $1 then $3 easy $AAPL will announce soon that their new products will be using $LQMT
TradingView
17 Apr 14 08:02:31
TradingView provides open & free charting components for new financial web --> https://t.co/Fj07Oc773N #mkt #fintech $AAPL $BTCUSD $UERUSD
Guru Algo Trading
17 Apr 14 08:02:23
@CNBC RT $AAPL Algo triggered SELL @ 11:01, P/T 513 #NextTrade #Stocks $PCLN $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $FB $BBRY $GLD $QQQ
Mitch
17 Apr 14 08:01:50
Bought more $acc May 40s @ .15 and 30 weekly $aapl 522.5s @ ave .82
Bassem Jamour
17 Apr 14 08:01:33
Commented on: $GOOGL misses their ER and only drops $10? I can't imagine this happening to $AAPL... http://t.co/LQEkSnlEMm
Norman Michaels
17 Apr 14 08:01:05
$AAPL Lighten up big at 522.40
Research Mogul
17 Apr 14 08:00:29
$IP Seeking the next stock like $ENR $BRKR $AAPL Click http://t.co/BmwsAreQQL
PredictWallStreet
17 Apr 14 08:00:19
The PWS Poll Results for $AAPL, 4/21/2014, are: 94% up. See more at: http://t.co/6b39jqQvfm, @PWSTSupport
CSCO Stock Alerts
17 Apr 14 08:00:07
Cisco's Head Is In The Clouds http://t.co/2LreQMu40O $INTC $AAPL $MSFT $CSCO
RC
17 Apr 14 08:00:07
$AAPL on the move here
AAPL Stock Alerts
17 Apr 14 08:00:06
Apple Should Buy Out Comcast http://t.co/56gxFVjDGl $CMCSA $GOOG $T $VZ $AAPL
4-traders.com
17 Apr 14 08:00:04
TECH STOCKS: IBM Losses Can't Hold Back Tech Gains http://t.co/WEYUTi98vE $COMP $IBM $AMZN $AAPL $FB $MU $NFLX $SNDK $TWTR $DJI $NDX $S500
Babara Blodgett
17 Apr 14 07:59:41
Should you hold or add to $MS $TYC $T $AAPL #Stock http://t.co/OPPlAYV1zf
Thudder & Wicks
17 Apr 14 07:58:44
$AAPL 521.29 +0.44% $FB 59.63 -0.16% $AMZN 325.60 +0.6% $GOOGL 541.78 -3.9% $YHOO 35.84 -1.4% $TWTR 45.79 +3.1% $KING 18.04 +0.06%
TraderDon
17 Apr 14 07:56:13
@Trader101010 Out $AAPL long at $521.20 +2.55
The Good Trader
17 Apr 14 07:56:05
$AAPL ITunes Store Gets Old http://t.co/EsUWsb46ET
The Good Trader
17 Apr 14 07:56:05
$AAPL Here's How Many iPhones Wall Street Thinks Apple Sold Last Quarter http://t.co/g0uMnkkul4
Guru Algo Trading
17 Apr 14 07:55:55
@CNBC RT $AAPL Algos BREAKING 520 level, P/T 513 #NextTrade #Stocks $PCLN $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $FB $BBRY $GLD $QQQ
Guru Algo Trading
17 Apr 14 07:55:24
@CNBC RT $QQQ Algo triggered SELL @ 10:53, P/T 85.40 #NextTrade #Stocks $PCLN $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $FB $AAPL $BBRY $GLD
Trade Flow Fund
17 Apr 14 07:55:08
$LQMT Target $3 Products using LiquidMetal starting to be announced. Taking position here. More announcements coming, iPhone $AAPL
stockroads
17 Apr 14 07:54:36
Commented on StockTwits: Did you not see the cash without audit results? Have you seen $AAPL cash? You're guess i... http://t.co/zkcvfKXX65
Clint McKidd
17 Apr 14 07:54:16
Is it breakout time on $HES $BIIB $MMM $AAPL Worth a look http://t.co/frp702RWkz
Lichartin
17 Apr 14 07:54:13
$AAPL looks like could break 522 barrier
Evan Medeiros
17 Apr 14 07:53:59
$AAPL i am long small 521.04 looking to add above HOD if we can see some commitment
Guru Algo Trading
17 Apr 14 07:53:50
@CNBC RT $QQQ Algo triggered SELL @ 10:44, P/T 85.40 #NextTrade #Stocks $PCLN $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $FB $AAPL $BBRY $GLD
Steve Symington
17 Apr 14 07:51:21
1 key risk Apple is taking introducing a larger #iPhone6: http://t.co/shldoBztoS via @themotleyfool $AAPL
Bettie Pagan
17 Apr 14 07:50:03
Buying or selling? $WMT $GPOR $WSM $AAPL #economy http://t.co/uNXScyyDWE
Franco Cox
17 Apr 14 07:49:58
Couple of Stocks you should Watch $DTV $ATR $CLI $AAPL View now http://t.co/shw1GTTvVH
Bettie Pagan
17 Apr 14 07:49:40
$UNT Are you Bullish on these #stocks $TGT $HCA $AAPL View now http://t.co/Gus0clY93N
Guru Algo Trading
17 Apr 14 07:49:02
@CNBC RT $AAPL Algo triggered SELL @ 10:44, P/T 513 #NextTrade #Stocks $PCLN $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $FB $BBRY $GLD $QQQ
Algo
17 Apr 14 07:48:12
Bubble Bust! http://t.co/MGJGC7JAvJ #Games #iphone5 #ipad $aapl
Randy LaVigne
17 Apr 14 07:47:35
Here's How Many iPhones Wall Street Thinks Apple Sold Last Quarter | Business Insider India http://t.co/nyuujpgyV3 $AAPL
Ahmet Greena
17 Apr 14 07:47:01
Shoud you sell or hold stocks like $PCAR $SRE $CPRT $AAPL Check out http://t.co/OCAuqDGuoz
Fool Headlines
17 Apr 14 07:46:35
If This Report Is Right, Hewlett-Packard Company’s Struggles Will Continue http://t.co/olQ8cOD5W4 - $AAPL
Bassem Jamour
17 Apr 14 07:46:20
Commented on: $GOOGL misses their ER and only drops $10? I can't imagine this happening to $AAPL... http://t.co/9nqn7LTGPV
dalestrnad
17 Apr 14 07:45:41
$JOEZ is still way oversold trading at 1.07, analysts calling for $1.30. $spy $gdx $ung $aapl
Teodor Gareth
17 Apr 14 07:43:04
$AAPL Apple Inc. Is Walking a Fine Line Introducing a Larger iPhone 6 http://t.co/8OjSS3MNTq
Guru Algo Trading
17 Apr 14 07:41:56
@CNBC RT $QQQ Algo triggered SELL @ 10:40, P/T 85.40 #NextTrade #Stocks $PCLN $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $FB $AAPL $BBRY $GLD
Stock Wire
17 Apr 14 07:41:55
Apple Inc. Is Walking a Fine Line Introducing a Larger iPhone 6 $AAPL http://t.co/tIqrDOm8Xq
Orson Jagger
17 Apr 14 07:41:54
Are you hanging on to $BPOP $KBR $NLY $AAPL #singedinvestor http://t.co/lvp4k9p08e
Day Brooks
17 Apr 14 07:40:17
Insider Trading updates on $JPM $PNRA $ALL $AAPL Click http://t.co/73za6jqVy8
BlueFielder
17 Apr 14 07:40:03
$AAPL : possible pin runner
Guru Algo Trading
17 Apr 14 07:39:10
@CNBC RT $AAPL Algo triggered SELL @ 10:35, P/T 513 #NextTrade #Stocks $PCLN $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $TSLA $FB $BBRY $GLD $QQQ
Ambrose Long
17 Apr 14 07:38:59
$STLD #Stocks you might want to buy $GRPN $JLL $AAPL Must have http://t.co/9GpreI8Mvu
Lars Anders
17 Apr 14 07:38:51
$ANSS Best research on #stocks such s $NYCB $WTW $AAPL #overvalued http://t.co/EoRZT9kaET
Saprodani Associates
17 Apr 14 07:38:28
$AAPL SELL into any strength - dead cat bounce - markets are going way-lower!!!
Katalin Pota
17 Apr 14 07:38:16
Apple likely to increase stock buyback plan next week http://t.co/mBayFQp73p #IBDBlogs via @IBDinvestors $AAPL $CHL
Calloway Domville
17 Apr 14 07:36:32
$VRSK Best research on #stocks such s $AGNC $DOV $AAPL I suggest http://t.co/RKi12URnqi
Chad Henage
17 Apr 14 07:34:37
My latest ..."Office for iPad Could Actually Hurt Microsoft and Google" $AAPL http://t.co/3sPfCkHDmj via @themotleyfool
				
				
By  +Follow September 16, 2013 8:38AM
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