logo
Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?

Register
    

 

Equities – Your destination to connect with the growth investment community.

Avoiding the Market Swings of Summertime Softness

By  +Follow August 22, 2013 3:19PM
Share:
Tickers Mentioned:

As Wall Street intensifies its watchful eye over the Federal Reserves bond-purchasing strategy, the market will likely be more susceptible to reactionary movements. How should traders and investors handle this kind of market? We asked Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group in this week's interview.

EQ: With earnings season over, Fed Watch is back in full swing again. What were your thoughts on the most recent FOMC minutes and the eventual tapering?

Turner: It was a wild ride in the market after the FOMC minutes came out. The S&P 500 and other indices were shot  higher but then plunged lower toward the close. The minutes stated that the committee will moderate the pace of its security purchase later this year. It went on to say that if economic conditions improve, that the committee will gradually reduce the pace and conclude its purchase in mid-2014. Of course there was a lot more content, but that sums up most of what concerns the market.

Naturally, the journey from where we are right now to undergoing this process is going to change almost everything, because it’s going to change interest rates. As we’ve discussed before, interest rates represent the cost of money and the cost of doing business. That’s a dynamic that rules much of the world. I don’t think this transition is necessarily going to be easy, especially considering the added headwinds including the upcoming debt ceiling limit and other policy making issues that will arise when Congress returns from vacation. I think we may have a bit of a rocky road ahead here, but we’ve certainly had a lot of warning and I think we need to be tactical in our decisions right now.

EQ: One particular industry that is especially rate sensitive is real estate investment trusts. Is this an area you’re looking at for potential plays?

Turner: Ironically, bonds are so oversold right now that they could potentially bounce, and sooner than later. If that happens, we’re looking at REITs and the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ($IYR), and it shows that at least there is a tradable bottom here. So we’re looking to capitalize here on a bounce. Certainly, the yields that they are paying now aresubstantial, some above 5-percent, , and if they get an oversold bounce here, we’re looking at BioMed Realty Trust Inc. (BMR) , Duke Realty Corp. (DRE) , and Camden Property Trust (CPT) . Of course, there are many more REITs people can check out.

Now, anyone that gets into these has to put enter what I call a “no kidding around” protective stop, meaning a hard stop with their broker. If you don’t want to do that, then I would suggest not entering this trade. We’re looking to trade for a short-term bounce, and by that, I mean within just a couple of days, for a quick opportunity. There is risk involved, , so the stop is very important.

EQ: There have been some murmurings about the Hindenburg Omen. Is this an indicator you pay attention to?

Turner: It’s one of the things that I pay attention to. Of course, the Hindenburg Omen was named after the 1937 disaster of a German passenger airship that exploded. The Hindenburg Omen is the combination of technical analysis and trading signs. One of its components is based on Norman Fosback's High Low Logic Index. Basically, the indicator lights up when:

  • New 52-week highs and 52-week lows are equal or greater to 2.8 percent on the New York Stock Exchange,
  • The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago,
  • The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day

When all these signals converge, it indicates that we could have a severe meltdown in the market. It hasn’t always been right—I don’t know of an indicator that has been—but it has predicted the 2007 financial meltdown and the 2000 tech bubble burst. So there are times when it has been right.

Now, while I certainly do pay attention to these kinds of indicators, I tend to just keep them at my elbow, so to speak. We can simply look at a chart in the last couple of weeks for the S&P 500 and see that simple indicators like the relative strength indicator (RSI) and the moving average convergence-divergence indicator (MACD) have also told us that the market is heading south. At the moment, much of the market is oversold, so a short-term bounce could take place. Still, our indicators show weakness heading into September.

EQ: Are there any sectors or industry groups that you’re watching right now?

Turner: There are pockets of strength, though I’m not necessarily looking to go long here. The iShares Dow Jones US Pharmaceuticals ($IHE) is sitting on its 50-day moving average and it is oversold based on its RSI. Because pharmas is more of a defensive industry group, I’m going to be curious to see here if it can bounce to the upside and stay above its 50-day moving average.

Also, the Guggenheim Solar ($TAN), which we’ve talked about before, seemed totally unphased by the broader market rollercoaster on Wednesday, and it  moved up on that down day . It’s also sitting on its 50-day moving average. Now whether it can hold here or not, I don’t know, but just out of interest, I’ll keep an eye on it. Overall though, I’m going to be an observer for  a few days and see what happens  before I commit to any new long positions.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer


Liked What You Read? Join Equities.com and Connect With Your Favorite Financial Experts FOR FREE! Members of Equities.com gain access to our leading financial news and content, active social investment community, proprietary research tools including the 2014 Small-Cap Stars, E.V.A. reports and more.

Results for IYR
Investors Hangout
5 May 15 00:58:08
SBUX Starbucks Corp. Change Click Here -> http://t.co/N93fupKvIV Trending $SBUX $IYR $GOOGL $RSP #SBUX #pennystocks #finance
clayton
5 May 15 00:55:04
LCI Lannett Co., Inc. Ideas Click Here -> http://t.co/JQy1YW6sRQ Trending $LCI $HYG $BNS.TO $IYR #LCI #finance #stocks
Investors Hangout
5 May 15 00:53:35
IYR Real Estate iShares 52Wk High Click Here -> http://t.co/0oUITkGk7t Trending $IYR $CEMP $ABC $GBGM #IYR #stockmarket #pennystocks
Bruce Leeroy
5 May 15 00:33:39
Market View Daily Charts $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $IYT $IYR http://t.co/LDCE0i45CT
TalkMarkets
5 May 15 00:09:04
Real Estate Flipping Red Flag $IYR http://t.co/k4wPU1OOxG
Barrett Henry Team
4 May 15 23:57:57
IYR Real Estate iShares Bid Click Here -> http://t.co/RhwxWFAEDG Trending $IYR $TLT $GDX $UNH #IYR #stockmarket #stocks …
Lucky Jimmy
4 May 15 23:56:03
IYR Real Estate iShares Bid Click Here -> http://t.co/7BK80JKwL5 Trending $IYR $TLT $GDX $UNH #IYR #stockmarket #stocks
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 23:48:13
COG Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. Shares Click Here -> http://t.co/nhNEFyYXfm Trending $COG $GDXJ $ABX $IYR #COG #tradeideas #stockmarket
Michael Harris
4 May 15 22:13:22
#Quant results for May 5. Long bias: $IYR Short bias: $QQQ $SLV $XLF http://t.co/r4ubAxTbqj
IH NASDAQ OMX
4 May 15 20:52:06
IYR Real Estate iShares Ex-Div Date Click Here -> http://t.co/00G5Uvls73 Trending $IYR $PAYC $ITB $JASO #IYR #tradeideas #stockmarket
leahanne
4 May 15 20:50:35
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. Stock Message Board Click Here -> http://t.co/MCsIg0u07e Trending $GILD $TSLA $IYR $BIDU #GILD #stocks…
Invest | Donate
4 May 15 19:14:03
@Jim5011: IBB Biotech iShares Change Click Here -> http://t.co/njbmQ5U4pp Trending $IBB $OSLH $IYR $BBY #IBB #pennystocks #invest
SayNoToPlusnet
4 May 15 18:54:22
Hayul #Hayul Jim5011: IBB Biotech iShares Change Click Here -> http://t.co/Zmluvdn4Lx Trending $IBB $OSLH $IYR $BBY #IBB #pennystocks #i…
Lucky Jimmy
4 May 15 18:54:05
IYR Real Estate iShares Short Sales Click Here -> http://t.co/REWz6kaqfk Trending $IYR $GDX $UNG $DIS #IYR #pennystocks #stock
jim50
4 May 15 18:53:35
IBB Biotech iShares Change Click Here -> http://t.co/DiXar62Xd8 Trending $IBB $OSLH $IYR $BBY #IBB #pennystocks #invest
danrocks
4 May 15 18:50:05
EIDO iShares MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund Financials Click Here -> http://t.co/pfzqZqZgSs Trending $EIDO $AA $IYR $AAXJ…
Invest | Donate
4 May 15 18:11:26
@Stock_Tracker1: CGRA CGrowth Capital, Inc. Quotes Click Here -> http://t.co/7Z0j4uqqKY Trending $CGRA $IYR $BABA $XL #CGRA #invest #penn…
TalkMarkets Recap
4 May 15 18:09:04
Real Estate Flipping Red Flag $IYR http://t.co/0NtCbUXj4K
IH News Desk
4 May 15 17:59:36
TZA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares Ex-Div Date Click Here -> http://t.co/AxQVPxJ21P Trending $TZA $MOO $IYR $XME #TZA #nasdaq…
nasdaqfan
4 May 15 17:59:05
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund Ask Size Click Here -> http://t.co/Phc2IfAZ67 Trending $TLT $IYR $HYG $PSEC #TLT…
Emylers
4 May 15 17:53:04
IYR Real Estate iShares Prev Close Click Here -> http://t.co/ykgoIYdN35 Trending $IYR $UUP $MCP $WBA #IYR #stockmarket #pennystocks
Stock_Tracker
4 May 15 17:47:05
CGRA CGrowth Capital, Inc. Quotes Click Here -> http://t.co/wngwAeV4dD Trending $CGRA $IYR $BABA $XL #CGRA #invest #pennystocks
Invest | Donate
4 May 15 17:23:37
@Jim5011: XLI Technology Select Sector SPDR Financials Click Here -> http://t.co/52VzPVORzw Trending $XLI $ADMD $DBA $IYR #XLI #invest #s…
jim50
4 May 15 17:03:07
XLI Technology Select Sector SPDR Financials Click Here -> http://t.co/V1fcGHM6HJ Trending $XLI $ADMD $DBA $IYR #XLI #invest #stocks
danrocks
4 May 15 16:56:05
PMCB QUALCOMM Inc. Financials Click Here -> http://t.co/Z5q4fsQvLf Trending $PMCB $EWZ $JNK $IYR #PMCB #finance #stocks
Investors Hangout
4 May 15 16:49:34
EW Brazil iShares Last Price Click Here -> http://t.co/zy7kTqf5xH Trending $EW $USO $IYR $NXPI #EW #tradeideas #finance
Rosner Stocks
4 May 15 15:57:07
QCOM QUALCOMM Inc. % Change Click Here -> http://t.co/W9EAsfw4Cx Trending $QCOM $EUO $ZNGA $IYR #QCOM #nasdaq #nasdaq
PolgarStocks
4 May 15 15:53:05
IYR Real Estate iShares Ideas Click Here -> http://t.co/SxMlODu0Ae Trending $IYR $JDST $RY $UVXY #IYR #investing #investing
IH News Desk
4 May 15 15:49:04
DIS Walt Disney Co. Market Cap Click Here -> http://t.co/SFAM2D63L5 Trending $DIS $FXE $IYR $CVX #DIS #finance #tradeideas
jim50
4 May 15 15:47:35
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Current Price Click Here -> http://t.co/DsxbX5bbxy Trending $CMG $IYR $NEM $ERX #CMG #nasdaq…
IH News Desk
4 May 15 15:18:08
$DBA Reviews Updated Monday, May 4, 2015 6:11:09 PM $SLW $IWM $IYR $PTEN http://t.co/GxSZt4UhHp
dailystockplays.com
4 May 15 14:36:56
Stochastic Buy http://t.co/YLnTu0CZxw $ZTS $WEN $PIN $CPN $SVU $MNKD $IYR $EPI $LVS $BRX $HEWG $RKUS $KIM $ITB $XRX $AMGN $LULU $IG
PolgarStocks
4 May 15 13:46:34
BX Blackstone Group LP Day High Click Here -> http://t.co/PtrLFC2YZc Trending $BX $EWH $LPPI $IYR #BX #stock #stocks
Lucky Jimmy
4 May 15 13:46:05
BIB ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Biotechnology Market Cap Click Here -> http://t.co/KQ5niEoKKj Trending $BIB $EWH $IYR $TATAMOTORS.IN #BIB…
IH News Desk
4 May 15 12:14:10
$JO News Updated Monday, May 4, 2015 2:11:09 PM $AGEN $XME $RIG $IYR http://t.co/p0mobQ9cRr
Albuquerque Realtors
4 May 15 12:08:47
http://t.co/z8x96OJgEF clayton_dd: IYR JC Penney Co, Inc. Quotes Click Here -> http://t.co/0FbIBvQJCU Trending $IYR $SLW $JD $NPH.V #IY…
Invest | Donate
4 May 15 12:07:19
@clayton_dd: IYR JC Penney Co, Inc. Quotes Click Here -> http://t.co/vJXteGTnC1 Trending $IYR $SLW $JD $NPH.V #IYR #pennystocks #invest
IH NASDAQ OMX
4 May 15 12:01:13
TXN Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares Short Sales Click Here -> http://t.co/dNlbYGJYSD Trending $TXN $FEYE $IYR $CHK #TXN…
Michael Kahn, CMT
4 May 15 11:59:23
Real Estate Flipping Red Flag $IYR http://t.co/GvdcQ6BcTp
clayton
4 May 15 11:54:05
IYR JC Penney Co, Inc. Quotes Click Here -> http://t.co/NLapAbhuFW Trending $IYR $SLW $JD $NPH.V #IYR #pennystocks #invest
Rosner Stocks
4 May 15 11:50:06
EWG Brazil iShares Current Price Click Here -> http://t.co/nkaLO9ShFD Trending $EWG $IYR $FCX $GENE #EWG #stocks #stockmarket
DennyT
4 May 15 11:46:33
BBH ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Biotechnology Shares Click Here -> http://t.co/A7823R1JG7 Trending $BBH $UA $EMES $IYR #BBH #pennystocks…
TalkMarkets
4 May 15 11:38:07
Real Estate Flipping Red Flag $IYR http://t.co/k4wPU1OOxG
Market Int Center
4 May 15 11:22:42
iShares DJ US Real Estate $IYR Showing Bearish Technicals With Resistance At $76.92 ( http://t.co/yWwu7IGhUf )
PolgarStocks
4 May 15 11:13:13
$IYR Last Price Updated Monday, May 4, 2015 2:07:14 PM $XME $ZLTQ $MOO $XLY http://t.co/3w6YMrZaXN
IH NASDAQ OMX
4 May 15 11:00:09
TXN Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares Ask Size Click Here -> http://t.co/rB8lF3FOLT Trending $TXN $XLV $NUGT $IYR #TXN #stock…
MarvinAndAnnisha
4 May 15 10:58:38
RT @lookn4wins: CYBR DuPont Co. Last Price Click Here -> http://t.co/o6eepPbYRC Trending $CYBR $SH $BAC $IYR #CYBR #finance #stockmarket
Rosner Stocks
4 May 15 10:54:11
JPM Carmax Inc. Volume Click Here -> http://t.co/baKZNPogr7 Trending $JPM $ADMD $IYR $RSP #JPM #nasdaq #stocks
Rosner Stocks
4 May 15 10:52:07
HABT WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF Prev Close Click Here -> http://t.co/6tJSGV2Hqw Trending $HABT $AMBA $EMES $IYR #HABT…
Finance Weekly
4 May 15 10:49:04
RT @lookn4wins: CYBR DuPont Co. Last Price Click Here -> http://t.co/o6eepPbYRC Trending $CYBR $SH $BAC $IYR #CYBR #finance #stockmarket
				
				
By  +Follow August 22, 2013 3:19PM
Share:

Comments

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

About us

Equities.com is the most advanced interactive online social ecosystem for the financial industry, serving as a resource center and next-generation communication platform that connects self-directed investors with public issuers, market experts, and professional service providers and vendors. Registered members can leverage our exclusive proprietary research tools such as the Small-Cap Stars, which outperformed 90% of all small-cap mutual funds, and robust do-it-yourself E.V.A. research reports. The Equities.com Issuer Dashboard is the ideal tool to communicate and manage investor awareness campaigns to the investment community, as well as to access valuable resources to help your company grow.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.

Login or Register

LOG IN