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According to 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, the implied probability of a 25bp hike occurring in September has eeked over 50%. So in trying to get out in front of this hike, the market seems to have gone ahead and caused the hike on its own. Okay, okay – so…
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Greece exiting the Euro is in the news cycle and with the availability of many ETF products, which offer downside protection, there is ample opportunity to buy some protection. The days of shorting the S&P Futures contact or buying individual stock put options at the CBOE are a thing of…
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In our opinion, for all the wonderful benefits of the information era, a major downside has been the need to provide constant coverage: the need for a constant and immediate explanation for everything. Lately, day-to-day market commentary has been absurd. Here’s one I heard recently: “the market is up today…
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We’ve waxed philosophical about currencies in the past, but we received a request to add some more color. Off the backdrop of the U.S. dollar hitting a 13-year high against the yen this week, it seemed timely.  Coverage of the new high highlighted an important and unique aspect about investing…
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We would venture that there is a strong correlation between the amount of ink spilled about an asset class or sector and its volatility. So given that the energy sector fell nearly 5.5% in the last month without much interest is somewhat curious. Or, is it? First, let’s establish whether…
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Benjamin Graham, father of value investing, once said: “in the short run, the market is like a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” The psychology factor that can dominate market returns and volatility in the short-run is often washed out in long-run annualized returns,…
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As a tactical asset management firm, we seek to offer a full range of downside risk managed investment strategies, covering all parts of an investor's portfolio. We believe that controlling drawdown and smoothing volatility is a critical objective, as periods of capital loss often coincide with the need for liquidity…
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It seems that the price of crude oil may have bottomed in January, then revisited the January lows in March, and has now rallied above February’s highs. Oil stocks also arrested their decline in mid-March, and have since rallied. Source: Bloomberg  From peak to trough, WTI fell 50.6 percent, and…
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I was a halfway decent skier when I was a kid. Good enough that I could navigate every trail on the mountain except for one or two. Good enough that I could do the double black diamonds. My grandfather built a cabin on the access road to Sugarbush, Vermont, in…
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Warren Buffet famously said to “never invest in a business you can’t understand.” The same advice should undoubtedly be applied to pooled investment vehicles. The advent and rapid growth of the ETF has made it easier than ever for investors to know what they own. Take the Financial Select SPDR…
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ETFs Pay Dividends Too   You already know that exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) offer an easy way to quickly take positions in hot market sectors and then jump out when the action cools. But, did you know that ETFs also work for dividend investors? In fact, many new dividend-paying ETFs have come…
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Each week, we tap the insight of Sam Stovall, Chief Equity Strategist for S&P Capital IQ, for his perspective on the current market.  EQ: The latest Fed announcement came out Wednesday, and while most of Wall Street wasn’t necessarily expecting any big changes, the market was uneasy leading up to…
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