Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?



Greed/Fear Ratio, Not P/Es, Drive Stock Prices

By  +Follow June 10, 2014 2:57AM
Tickers Mentioned:


    I sense some nervousness in the Street about the level of stock prices. I have been uneasy for a number of days, since I felt a major upward extension of the rally that started in April needed a robust rebound in the economy this spring, not just a good one.

    I see references to historic price/earnings ratios with conclusions based on current stock prices being above an average going back they don’t say how far. Averages can be worthless, or distorted at best, it all depends on the years covered and the events that impacted them. This is the kind of stuff  money managers feed computers who make their decisions for them.

    At extremes, P/Es signal opportunity to buy or sell, but their enormous range between high and low over the years reduces the credibility of an average significantly.

    The level of P/Es is a product of human emotions, greed and fear. While stock prices have soared over the last five years, I believe the greed/fear ratio is somewhere in the middle of extreme high and low.

    This market is not yet generating the overwhelming compulsion to buy stocks and especially to buy ridiculously over-priced stocks.  Actually, the extremes of the Greed/Fear ratio is not so much quantifiable as it is a matter of opinion, a well-seasoned sense of investors’ behavior.

    While some see P/Es  as high now, I don’t see the Greed/Fear ratio as high.

    Corrections – YES.   Bear market – NO.


    Odds favor a small correction at the open can reverse with a healthy gain for the day.

Support today is DJIA 16,876; S&P 500: 1,943; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,316

Resistance today is still  DJIA: 17,015; S&P 500: 1,959; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,341.

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,943

S&P 500:  1,951

Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,336

Russell 2000:    1,175

Tuesday,  June  10, 2014      9:15 a.m.


    The European Central Bank’s cut of its benchmark interest rate and announcement to employ additional measures to stimulate European economies stands to help the U.S. economy, as well. It did little to boost stock markets abroad which are trading at six-year highs, suggesting the move was already discounted. Even so, let’s consider it a  positive.



    At key junctures, I technically analyze each of the 30 Dow industrials seeking a reasonable near-term support and short-term resistance level. By technically studying the balances of buying and selling in each stock, then converting that data back to the DJIA using the “divisor” (0.1557159) I can get a better reading on the average itself.  The DJIA is a price-weighted average and subject to distortion by higher priced issues.

    As of June 9, the support for this  calculation is 16,801 and resistance is 17,176.

Note: My daily support/resistance levels are more short-term oriented.


HOUSING: Objective accomplished – will discontinue coverage

     I began to track the following housing stocks earlier this year, hoping to gain some insight into the strength of the economic recovery emerging from a severe winter.

    My reasoning was that a robust economic recovery cannot develop without a contribution from the housing sector.

    While the industry stats for housing lagged, the stocks rebounded in late May and to-date in June.

    Monday, PHM, KBH and DHI extended breakouts from consolidation patterns, TOL broke out of one, and BZH demonstrated strength within a consolidation pattern.          


Beazer Homes  (BZH)    $19.27

PulteCorp ($PHM) :  $20.23

Toll Brothers (TOL) :  $37.27

KB Homes  (KBH) : : $17.29

DR Horton  (DHI) : $24.61



      For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go to www.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”


NFIB Small Bus. Optimism Ix. (7:30): May index up to 96.6 from 95.2

ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45) Sales down 2.8 pct. in June 7 week from a gain of 2.9 pct. the prior week.  Year/year  now +3.0 pct. vs +3.1 pct.

JOLTS (10:00) Job Openings/Labor Turnover


MBA Purchase Apps (7:00)

Treasury Budget (2:00)


Jobless Claims (8:30)

Retail Sales (8:30)

Bus. Inventories (10:00)




June 2    DJIA   16,717 Decision Time for Stocks ?

June 3    DJIA   16,743 Economy “Must” Accelerate,  or…

June 4    DJIA   16,722 Correction in Stocks Without Robust Economic Rebound

June 5    DJIA   16,737 Bulls Must Pick It Up, or Lose the Ball

June 6    DJIA   16,836 Easy Does It ! Dow 20,000, But Not in Straight Line

June 9    DJIA   16,924 Stock Market Breakout – Now What ?

A Game-On Analysis,  LLC publication

George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized investment advice or as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

Liked What You Read? Join Equities.com as a contributor and get eyeballs on your content FOR FREE!

Results for BZH
mokrari by @edi_bice
25 Nov 15 08:05:06
Best outperformers ranked 25-30 $BZH $CCRN $RXN $QKLS $NGLS
Market Int Center
25 Nov 15 06:44:11
Potential Beazer Homes USA $BZH Trade Has 18.08% Downside Protection ( https://t.co/GFO4NTVPGY )
25 Nov 15 01:22:02
$BZH: Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Short Interest Update: https://t.co/0TYxXKlLNc
DE Asset Management
24 Nov 15 16:38:35
RT @TickerReport: Research Analysts’ Recent Ratings Changes for Beazer Homes USA $BZH https://t.co/vgaxWS8MR1
Dakota Financial
24 Nov 15 16:08:28
Research Analysts’ Recent Ratings Changes for Beazer Homes USA $BZH https://t.co/mlTC6OjDFE
Consumer News
24 Nov 15 16:04:28
Research Analysts’ Recent Ratings Changes for Beazer Homes USA $BZH https://t.co/cvkOeP82mg #acn
US Banking News
24 Nov 15 16:03:21
$BZH - Research Analysts' Recent Ratings Changes for Beazer Homes USA #BZH https://t.co/l5PF1bmVdr
Ticker Report
24 Nov 15 16:03:16
Research Analysts’ Recent Ratings Changes for Beazer Homes USA $BZH https://t.co/vgaxWS8MR1
24 Nov 15 16:01:13
$BZH: Research Analysts’ Recent Ratings Changes for Beazer Homes …: https://t.co/y5t0G0qJ3c
US Banking News
24 Nov 15 16:00:19
Research Analysts’ Recent Ratings Changes for Beazer Homes USA $BZH https://t.co/sPj3RK5aXX
24 Nov 15 09:23:08
$BZH ALERT: New Beazer Homes USA Inc. SEC Filing From our Stock News Alerts App
24 Nov 15 09:22:12
$BZH: New Insider Transaction on BZH by EVP, Chief Financial Officer: https://t.co/aAdQyzTWpB
Insider Alerts
24 Nov 15 09:21:31
NEW insider transaction on $BZH reported a moment ago: https://t.co/JovS4BTobW
mokrari by @edi_bice
24 Nov 15 09:05:07
Best outperformers ranked 35-40 $GVA $BZH $HEAT $NAVI $CCRN
24 Nov 15 07:09:56
$BZH up 0.8% to 14.35 after bullish cycle setup #stocks #options #trading https://t.co/nwYSTBOrUj
23 Nov 15 11:39:02
$BZH: Beazer Homes USA Given Average Rating of “Hold” by Brokerages …: https://t.co/3vd45Pp9OV
Sleek Money
23 Nov 15 11:25:31
Beazer Homes USA Receives $18.83 Average Target Price from Brokerages $BZH https://t.co/SYUrveuqel
23 Nov 15 11:13:59
$71,000 in ONE TRADE!! By Follwing Their Signals More Info Here https://t.co/n4FmW1UTLN .. $BYM $BZH $BZT
mokrari by @edi_bice
23 Nov 15 09:05:13
Best outperformers ranked 35-40 $GVA $BZH $HEAT $NAVI $CCRN
22 Nov 15 23:02:02
$BZH: Company Shares of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE:BZH) Rally …: https://t.co/8mfCiLa8WX
22 Nov 15 15:04:02
$BZH: Wall Street analysts bullish on BZH's earnings growth: https://t.co/m5egeSwGaO https://t.co/EpdJD7jFsi
mokrari by @edi_bice
22 Nov 15 09:05:32
Best outperformers ranked 35-40 $GVA $BZH $HEAT $NAVI $CCRN
mokrari by @edi_bice
21 Nov 15 09:35:29
Best outperformers ranked 40-45 $GVA $LOCO $BZH $HEAT $RXN
Daily Contracts
20 Nov 15 10:33:01
Real-Time feed of company contracts, original agreements and executive updates from $BZH https://t.co/LKQMm4wsRZ
mokrari by @edi_bice
20 Nov 15 10:05:40
Best outperformers ranked 45-50 $MDVN $GVA $BZH $MERC $HEAT
20 Nov 15 01:26:03
$BZH is rated BUY, 39.5% upside by Wall Street analysts based on average ratings/targets https://t.co/NVNHXgUyEJ https://t.co/6KUzfQyYut
19 Nov 15 14:31:02
PIRS DD 4 investors.Read here: https://t.co/vD9rNW2f06 $FBRC $PRA $AMTD $CKEC $EAT $AF $BZH $LB
Media Sentiment
19 Nov 15 11:47:48
$BZH received a new alert. Find out why at https://t.co/nZwqRf3BRT #stocks #daytrading #trading #mkt #NYSE #NASDAQ #markets 275
Market Int Center
19 Nov 15 11:40:34
Beazer Homes USA $BZH Showing Bearish Technicals With Resistance At $14.41 ( https://t.co/yNrBMygWcK )
Reggie Noble
19 Nov 15 07:54:58
Top swing play candidates based on yesterday's action $OZM $BZH $KEY $ORBC $VUZI
19 Nov 15 02:17:01
JBEM new pick 'PIRS'.Read here: https://t.co/vD9rNW2f06 $BYM $BZC $BZF $BZH $BZM $BZQ $BZUN $C
18 Nov 15 21:03:02
$BZH: Wall Street analysts bullish on BZH's earnings growth: https://t.co/m5egeSf4Me https://t.co/RL9ubuVoeG
BNK Invest
18 Nov 15 13:29:52
Notable Wednesday Option Activity: $BZH $SLCA $FINL #stockoptions https://t.co/xHMVX3Z4MY
Daily Contracts
18 Nov 15 07:23:09
Real-Time feed of company contracts, original agreements and executive updates from $BZH https://t.co/LKQMm4wsRZ
Psych Trade
18 Nov 15 06:18:12
NOTICE: $BZH OPTIMISM indicator (as seen by investors in News & Social Media) shows high expectations. https://t.co/zoNXc5Kngr
By  +Follow June 10, 2014 2:57AM



blog comments powered by Disqus

 Today's Must Reads

What Crowdfunding Leaders Are Saying About the SEC’s Approval of Title III

How the Drug Price Scrutiny is Affecting Pharma Stocks

8 More Tips for Choosing the Right Crowdfunding Platform

Will the Post-Smartphone Era Bring Wearable Drones?

3 Cloud Stocks That Pay Dividends


Small-cap stocks offer investors many benefits, ranging from higher growth potential to overlooked value opportuni... in Equities.com's Hangs on LockerDome

About us

Equities.com is an advanced financial data portal and social network designed to connect self-directed investors with the world’s most innovative startup and small cap companies. Through our in-depth coverage of small cap markets, comprehensive research and stock valuation reports, state of the art issuer products, and world class events, Equities.com provides the social tools and insight that drive tomorrow’s investment relationships and opportunities.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.

Login or Register