Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?



Greed/Fear Ratio, Not P/Es, Drive Stock Prices

By  +Follow June 10, 2014 2:57AM
Tickers Mentioned:


    I sense some nervousness in the Street about the level of stock prices. I have been uneasy for a number of days, since I felt a major upward extension of the rally that started in April needed a robust rebound in the economy this spring, not just a good one.

    I see references to historic price/earnings ratios with conclusions based on current stock prices being above an average going back they don’t say how far. Averages can be worthless, or distorted at best, it all depends on the years covered and the events that impacted them. This is the kind of stuff  money managers feed computers who make their decisions for them.

    At extremes, P/Es signal opportunity to buy or sell, but their enormous range between high and low over the years reduces the credibility of an average significantly.

    The level of P/Es is a product of human emotions, greed and fear. While stock prices have soared over the last five years, I believe the greed/fear ratio is somewhere in the middle of extreme high and low.

    This market is not yet generating the overwhelming compulsion to buy stocks and especially to buy ridiculously over-priced stocks.  Actually, the extremes of the Greed/Fear ratio is not so much quantifiable as it is a matter of opinion, a well-seasoned sense of investors’ behavior.

    While some see P/Es  as high now, I don’t see the Greed/Fear ratio as high.

    Corrections – YES.   Bear market – NO.


    Odds favor a small correction at the open can reverse with a healthy gain for the day.

Support today is DJIA 16,876; S&P 500: 1,943; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,316

Resistance today is still  DJIA: 17,015; S&P 500: 1,959; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,341.

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,943

S&P 500:  1,951

Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,336

Russell 2000:    1,175

Tuesday,  June  10, 2014      9:15 a.m.


    The European Central Bank’s cut of its benchmark interest rate and announcement to employ additional measures to stimulate European economies stands to help the U.S. economy, as well. It did little to boost stock markets abroad which are trading at six-year highs, suggesting the move was already discounted. Even so, let’s consider it a  positive.



    At key junctures, I technically analyze each of the 30 Dow industrials seeking a reasonable near-term support and short-term resistance level. By technically studying the balances of buying and selling in each stock, then converting that data back to the DJIA using the “divisor” (0.1557159) I can get a better reading on the average itself.  The DJIA is a price-weighted average and subject to distortion by higher priced issues.

    As of June 9, the support for this  calculation is 16,801 and resistance is 17,176.

Note: My daily support/resistance levels are more short-term oriented.


HOUSING: Objective accomplished – will discontinue coverage

     I began to track the following housing stocks earlier this year, hoping to gain some insight into the strength of the economic recovery emerging from a severe winter.

    My reasoning was that a robust economic recovery cannot develop without a contribution from the housing sector.

    While the industry stats for housing lagged, the stocks rebounded in late May and to-date in June.

    Monday, PHM, KBH and DHI extended breakouts from consolidation patterns, TOL broke out of one, and BZH demonstrated strength within a consolidation pattern.          


Beazer Homes  (BZH)    $19.27

PulteCorp ($PHM) :  $20.23

Toll Brothers (TOL) :  $37.27

KB Homes  (KBH) : : $17.29

DR Horton  (DHI) : $24.61



      For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go to www.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”


NFIB Small Bus. Optimism Ix. (7:30): May index up to 96.6 from 95.2

ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45) Sales down 2.8 pct. in June 7 week from a gain of 2.9 pct. the prior week.  Year/year  now +3.0 pct. vs +3.1 pct.

JOLTS (10:00) Job Openings/Labor Turnover


MBA Purchase Apps (7:00)

Treasury Budget (2:00)


Jobless Claims (8:30)

Retail Sales (8:30)

Bus. Inventories (10:00)




June 2    DJIA   16,717 Decision Time for Stocks ?

June 3    DJIA   16,743 Economy “Must” Accelerate,  or…

June 4    DJIA   16,722 Correction in Stocks Without Robust Economic Rebound

June 5    DJIA   16,737 Bulls Must Pick It Up, or Lose the Ball

June 6    DJIA   16,836 Easy Does It ! Dow 20,000, But Not in Straight Line

June 9    DJIA   16,924 Stock Market Breakout – Now What ?

A Game-On Analysis,  LLC publication

George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized investment advice or as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

Liked What You Read? Join Equities.com as a contributor and get eyeballs on your content FOR FREE!

Results for BZH
Carmen Hill
1 Jun 15 18:48:12
Beazer $BZH locks in 2.85 of potential upside: http://t.co/XsBLGBUCZf
Penny Stock Secret
31 May 15 20:42:29
Yesterday We Made $94,000 In Just One Trade More Info Here http://t.co/SVqoMkrw2z .. $BYM $BZH $BZT
Breaking News Now
31 May 15 12:19:04
$LOJN $BZH: Stocks in Focus: LoJack Corporation (NASDAQ:LOJN), Alnylam ...: http://t.co/nwhhPTh8fL
31 May 15 00:43:18
NVAX Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. Prev Close http://t.co/uUV2l90M0v $NVAX $DATA $BZH $BABA #NVAX #nasdaq #pennystocks
Rosner Stocks
31 May 15 00:41:03
MCD 3M Co. Dividend http://t.co/ivqQzQqQcH $MCD $VTI $BZH $CAH #MCD #stockmarket #investing
Rosner Stocks
31 May 15 00:39:04
IFC.TO Infinity, Inc. 52Wk Low http://t.co/SJ4MqAzYjg $IFC.TO $AUY $SCHD $BZH #IFC.TO #tradeideas #nasdaq
31 May 15 00:37:11
EWK South Korea iShares Exchange http://t.co/qPVVxdgTsw $EWK $BZH $SMN $FV #EWK #stockmarket #tradeideas
Investors Hangout
31 May 15 00:37:06
FNMA Force Minerals Corp. Stock Forum http://t.co/YkSRl6ekgo $FNMA $BZH $XLE $F #FNMA #nasdaq #invest
IH News Desk
31 May 15 00:34:08
BZH Cardinal Health, Inc. Bid Size http://t.co/YB9mtMClio $BZH $XLF $VAST.L $FORC #BZH #finance #stocks
Rosner Stocks
31 May 15 00:34:05
BZH Cardinal Health, Inc. Shares http://t.co/xd2ITN5Thb $BZH $GDAY $TVIX $APRI #BZH #nasdaq #finance
31 May 15 00:34:03
BZH Cardinal Health, Inc. Bid Size http://t.co/WveiXudXUe $BZH $XLI $SMN $SMH #BZH #stocks #stocks
31 May 15 00:33:06
BZH Cardinal Health, Inc. Ex-Div Date http://t.co/jd2oJmqgwI $BZH $ECHO $CWT/UN.TO $SDRL #BZH #invest #invest
31 May 15 00:31:37
AAPL Apple, Inc. Investor Opinions http://t.co/mH6NwShtjw $AAPL $EWK $JBLU $BZH #AAPL #nasdaq #investing
Hans David DeBeer
29 May 15 15:47:23
Real Estate: What's Next For Home Sales And Prices? http://t.co/Zeso3xz9hU via @IBDinvestors $HOV $BZH $MHO $TMHC $RYL $CCS
Jack Trader
29 May 15 12:01:52
$BZH Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZT) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for April 10, 2015 http://t.co/LANNMgUKl4
John Turner
29 May 15 11:07:15
$BZH Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZT) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for April 10, 2015 http://t.co/sQ3EGiwwGT
Market Int Center
29 May 15 10:01:28
Potential Beazer Homes USA $BZH Trade Has 10.73% Downside Protection ( http://t.co/27fTH3f8uD )
Seeking Alpha
29 May 15 04:28:55
April New Home Sales, Homebuilder Sentiment And Overvalued Homebuilder Stocks http://t.co/882b1gAqFg $BZH $DHI $KBH $LEN $LGIH $PHM $RYL
John Turner
28 May 15 12:01:51
$BZH Why Beazer Homes USA (BZH) Stock Might be a Great Pick http://t.co/wbgT25uNBj
28 May 15 08:47:23
homies making nice daily's $KBH $BZH $TOL ect
28 May 15 07:52:56
Home builders getting a lift on pending home sales data. $HOV $BZH $SPF $ITB
Daily Contracts
28 May 15 07:47:04
Real-Time feed of company contracts, original agreements and executive updates from $BZH http://t.co/LKQMm4wsRZ
Media Sentiment
28 May 15 06:42:16
$BZH received a new alert. Find out why at http://t.co/nZwqReM0tj #stocks #daytrading #trading #mkt #NYSE #NASDAQ #markets 204
Market Int Center
28 May 15 06:41:00
Beazer Homes USA $BZH Showing Bullish Technicals With Support At $17.93 ( http://t.co/KJebMk3psk )
27 May 15 14:50:45
Bullish Cross http://t.co/onPm4dWhdW $PBMD $RSX $EQT $ALB $BZH $DBD $BTI $FBC $BCOR $HPY $FEI $DWX $ESD $FGD $EMD $ESR
27 May 15 07:45:18
Toll Brothers leads homebuilders lower after results $TOL $HOV $LEN $RYL $BZH $PHM $DHI $ITB $XHB http://t.co/tWbY5Olawm
Media Sentiment
27 May 15 00:34:50
$BZH received a new alert. Find out why at http://t.co/nZwqReM0tj #stocks #daytrading #trading #mkt #NYSE #NASDAQ #markets 1
Seeking Alpha
27 May 15 00:30:21
Existing Home Sales Drop Unexpectedly In April - Underlying Data Is Bearish http://t.co/XrO4KHVti2 $BZH $DHI $KBH $LEN $LGIH $PHM $RYL
Catalyst Global Mkts
26 May 15 07:03:23
Hi,#Traders !! Here are some #stocks on our radar #today: $BZH , $LEN , $DHI, .......
Jeffrey Blake
25 May 15 12:33:42
$BZH Beazer Homes USA's Buy Rating Reiterated at Sterne Agee CRT (BZH) http://t.co/vBNZ1zzPYh
Bill Stoller
25 May 15 10:28:59
Sterne Agee CRT: 6 #Homebuilders To Buy On Weakness $BZH $CCS $MTH http://t.co/Jm7jCHtmOH via @benzinga wk in review
25 May 15 05:14:33
Beazer Homes USA’s Buy Rating Reiterated at Sterne Agee CRT $BZH http://t.co/4MzA7rtFT5
By  +Follow June 10, 2014 2:57AM



blog comments powered by Disqus

About us

Equities.com is the most advanced interactive online social ecosystem for the financial industry, serving as a resource center and next-generation communication platform that connects self-directed investors with public issuers, market experts, and professional service providers and vendors. Registered members can leverage our exclusive proprietary research tools such as the Small-Cap Stars, which outperformed 90% of all small-cap mutual funds, and robust do-it-yourself E.V.A. research reports. The Equities.com Issuer Dashboard is the ideal tool to communicate and manage investor awareness campaigns to the investment community, as well as to access valuable resources to help your company grow.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.

Login or Register